-------------------------- Course announcement ------------------------------
Bayesian population analysis using WinBUGS and JAGS
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Instructors: Marc Kéry & Michael Schaub, Swiss Ornithological Institute
Date: 8–12 July 2013
Venue: USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Laurel, Maryland
Computers: Bring your own laptop with latest R and WinBUGS, JAGS or OpenBUGS
Costs: USD$700 (normal rate), USD$300 (student rate)
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This course introduces many key models used in the analysis of distribution, abundance and survival,
as well as their spatial and temporal patterns, in a Bayesian analysis framework. It closely follows
our recent book “Bayesian population analysis using WinBUGS” published by Academic Press.
We use programs R and WinBUGS and JAGS to fit and understand some of the most widely
used models for the analysis of animal and plant populations. These include:
• Poisson generalized linear mixed model (e.g., Link and Sauer 2002)
• State-space models (e.g., Dennis et al. 2006)
• Site-occupancy models (MacKenzie et al. 2002, 2003) for the analysis of species distributions
• Binomial mixture models (Royle 2004) for the analysis of distribution and abundance with
full accounting for observation error
• Closed-population models for population size
• Cormack-Jolly-Seber models for estimating survival probabilities
• Jolly-Seber models for estimating survival, recruitment and adundance
• Multistate capture-recapture models for estimating survival and transition rates
• Integrated population models (Besbeas et al. 2002; Schaub et al. 2007).
This is an intermediate-level workshop with about 3/4 of the time spent on lecturing and 1/4 on
solving exercises. No previous experience with program WinBUGS, or Bayesian statistics,
is assumed. However, a good working knowledge of modern regression methods (ANOVA,
ANCOVA, generalised linear models) and also of program R (or another programming language) is required.
Please bring your own laptops and install a recent version of R plus WinBUGS 1.4., with
the upgrade patch and the immortality key decoded (in this order). Alternatively, JAGS and OpenBUGS
work fine for 99% of what we do.
Send your application to Andy Royle ([log in to unmask]), describing your background and
knowledge in statistical modeling, R and WinBUGS/OpenBUGS/JAGS, by 30 April 2013 at the latest.
Workshop invitations will be sent out in early May 2013.
Jim Nichols Travel Award
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Up to two Jim Nichols Travel Awards will be available to outstanding applicants especially from, but
not restricted to, developing countries. See www.mbr-pwrc.usgs.gov/workshops/ for more information.
Please send JNTA applications to Andy Royle ([log in to unmask]).
______________________________________________________________
Marc Kéry
Tel. ++41 41 462 97 93
[log in to unmask]
www.vogelwarte.ch
Swiss Ornithological Institute | Seerose 1 | CH-6204 Sempach | Switzerland
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*** Introduction on Bayesian statistical modeling: Kéry (2010), Introduction to WinBUGS for Ecologists, Academic Press; see www.mbr-pwrc.usgs.gov/pubanalysis/kerybook
*** New book on Bayesian statistical modeling: Kéry & Schaub (2012), Bayesian Population Analysis using WinBUGS, Academic Press; see www.vogelwarte.ch/bpa
*** Upcoming workshops: http://www.phidot.org/forum/viewforum.php?f=8
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