Research into biomarkers: how does drug procurement affect the design of clinical trials?
By Fiona SCOTT MORTON, Yale University and NBER
Paul SEABRIGHT
Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse, Toulouse School of Economics and CEPR
Abstract:
This paper examines incentives for pharmaceutical firms to invest in biomarkers that predict which groups of sufferers from a certain medical condition will respond well to a particular treatment. We show that when pricing of the treatment is imperfectly responsive to effectiveness, firms undertaking clinical trial have an incentive to expand the relevant treatment population in order both to increase the probability of a statistically significant result, and to increase future revenues. Firms may fail to include potentially promising biomarkers in clinical trials, may include such biomarkers without disclosing them in the public protocol, and may fail to disclose the relevance of clinically predictive biomarkers. We who how many existing pricing and procurement schemes create adverse incentives of this kind, and discuss various mechanisms that may help to mitigate such effects.
Details: Tuesday 4th December Time: 12.45 – 13.45 Location: Lecture Theatre Upper ground, Imperial College Business School, South Kensington. A lunch will be served beforehand
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