Dear Ian
Thanks you for a cvery clear post and I agree with all you say. However....
It has implications even further down the magnitude scale as issues
concerned with induced seismicity associated with hydrofracturing
raise their head. Some of you may not know that Brian Baptie and I
have been advising DECC on aspects of this including mechanisms,
maximum likely magnitude, probable levels of damage, disturbance
etc.......
It is a little concerning as to how this kind of advice stands
legally, in terms of indemnity, responsibility etc in the light of
this. I certainly wont be giving any advice on shale gas exploration
in Italy! This goes for geothermal exploration too as Basle is still
very much in peoples minds.
I am also not sure what the volcanological community have to say about
the implications of this for them.
yours as ever
Peter
Professor Peter Styles
http://geophysics.esci.keele.ac.uk/People/styles/
Professor of Applied and Environmental Geophysics
Applied & Environmental Geophysics Research Group
School of Physical and Geographical Sciences
Keele University
Staffs ST5 5 BG
UK
On 25 October 2012 09:16, Ian Main <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> Dear Charlotte,
>
> These posts are very helpful. They show that the implications of the case
> go way beyond seismology, though clearly for now we are the most affected.
>
> As a co-author, it is also good to see explicit EGU reference to the ICEF
> report. Though commissioned by Italian Civil protection, our remit was
> always to evaluate the subject world-wide, and the results have significant
> implications outside Italy, not least the recommendations on improving
> communication, education and outreach, as well as research at the interface
> between science, social science and operational research.
>
> The EU itself is sponsoring many projects on time-dependent hazard that will
> be affected immediately. Those of us working on the embryonic subject of
> operational forecasting now have a dilemma. Forecasting power cannot be
> assessed in retrospect because of known biasses. Instead it must be done
> verifiably in real time, and evaluated after many trials, with many
> perceived 'false alarms' for the very low-probability forecasts we can make
> at present. If we are to carry on this work, we will need clear and
> legally-informed guidance from our sponsors in the EU, national governments,
> and national and international academic societies such as EGU on how to
> proceed, if at all.
>
> Clearly indemnity will form a key part of this discussion, and perhaps
> eventually for all forms of scientific advice.
>
> Three members of the current Grand Risks Commission in Italy have already
> made their decision by resigning with immediate effect. We are only just
> beginning to see the real and tangible harm to disaster risk reduction
> efforts in Europe as a direct result of the trial outcome.
>
> Yours sincerely, Ian.
>
> -------------
>
>
>
> Krawczyk, Charlotte wrote:
>>
>> Dear all,
>>
>> after the verdict news from Italy, media and interviews occupied the
>> thoughts of large parts of our community and various mailing lists
>> are very active.
>>
>> There are many subtleties to the L'Aquila case, so that the case
>> itself cannot be judged by most of us. Thus, to provide a statement
>> and some scientific information in general, we made a post on our EGU
>> website on Tuesday:
>> http://www.egu.eu/inside-egu/divisions-and-present-officers/division-seismology/home.html
>>
>>
>> AGU has also published a statement here:
>> http://www.agu.org/news/press/pr_archives/2012/2012-46.shtml
>>
>>
>> With best regards, Charlotte.
>>
>>
>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Prof. Dr. CharLotte Krawczyk (President of
>> Seismology Division at EGU)
>>
>> Leibniz Institute for Applied Geophysics (LIAG) Stilleweg 2 D-30655
>> Hannover Germany fon: +49 (0) 511-643-3518 fax: +49 (0)
>> 511-643-3665 email: [log in to unmask] http://www.liag-hannover.de
>>
>
> --
> Ian Main FRSE
>
> Professor of Seismology & Rock Physics
> www.geos.ed.ac.uk/contacts/homes/imain/
>
>
>
> The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in
> Scotland, with registration number SC005336.
--
Professor Peter Styles
http://geophysics.esci.keele.ac.uk/People/styles/
Professor of Applied and Environmental Geophysics
Applied & Environmental Geophysics Research Group
School of Physical and Geographical Sciences
Keele University
Staffs ST5 5 BG
UK
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