Sorry, no..
The probabilistic argument you give is correct, but only if
you argue conditional on your baseline risk. As you haven't
specified this, your argument is wrong.
If it were true, then you be would be saying that all
Poisson processes (and I agree that road traffic injuries
follow a Poisson process quite precisely) have a common risk
after the initial stage.
Anthony
On 16/10/12 00:41, Vincent Granville wrote:
> Great reading stuff for our UK fellows.
>
> Your chance of having a car accident in the next 25,000 miles is independent
> of how many car accidents you had during the last 25,000 miles,
> or even during the last 300,000 miles for that matter.
>
> Read more about the paradox at https://bit.ly/Wf3SNk
>
> You may leave the list at any time by sending the command
>
> SIGNOFF allstat
>
> to [log in to unmask], leaving the subject line blank.
>
--
Anthony Staines, Professor of Health Systems,
School of Nursing and Human Sciences, DCU, Dublin 9,Ireland.
Tel:- +353 1 700 7807. Mobile:- +353 86 606 9713
http://astaines.eu/
Standard Disclaimer Text inserted in accordance with DCU policy
“This email and any files transmitted with it are
confidential and are intended solely for use by the
addressee. Any unauthorized dissemination, distribution or
copying of this message and any attachments is strictly
prohibited. If you have received this email in error please
notify the sender and delete the message. Any views or
opinions presented in this email are solely those of the
author and cannot be relied upon as being those of Dublin
City University. E-mail communications such as this cannot
be guaranteed to be virus free, timely, secure or error free
and we do not accept liability for any such matters or their
consequences. Please consider the environment before
printing this Email ”
You may leave the list at any time by sending the command
SIGNOFF allstat
to [log in to unmask], leaving the subject line blank.
|