Dear all,
There is a great, and readable, book that I would recommend. It is called "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives" by Leonard Mlodinow. It clearly demonstrates how becoming a superstar in sport or on the stock market is just the result of chance, and how a clever lawyer used arguments about chance to get an acquittal for OJ Simpson.
I know that a book about the history of chance and randomness, and its effect on statistics and human life doesn't sound like a riveting read - but I guarantee that after reading it you will never look at ED attendance statistics in the same way again!
Tim.
------------------------------------
Prof. Timothy Coats
Professor of Emergency Medicine,
University of Leicester, UK
0116 252 3263
-----Original Message-----
From: Accident and Emergency Academic List [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Babak
Sent: 07 June 2012 06:26
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: ACAD-AE-MED Digest - 28 May 2012 to 5 Jun 2012 (#2012-34)
As I remember up to seven months succession of odd presentations or increased attendances can be taken as mere statistical presentation of random repeats, and then after if you have continuous upward or sustained rise you should consider name it an increasing trend. Random my look so unrandom at times!
Sent from Bobi's phone
On 6 Jun 2012, at 20:03, Coats Tim - Professor of Emergency Medicine <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> I wonder if there is over-interpretation going on here? The month to month variations in attendance numbers due to chance alone are likely to be pretty large, so looking at one months figures and trying to attribute a cause doesn't really make any sense. You need to know the normal month by month variation in order to make a judgement about changes (a Statistical Process Control or SPC chart is a good way of doing this and spotting the trends from the background variation). Don't you think that a single change of 3% or even 6% is probably just chance,
>
> Tim.
>
> Of course once a small change has been going on for a number of months it will go outside the bounds of chance and become a trend.
> ------------------------------------
> Prof. Timothy Coats
> Professor of Emergency Medicine,
> University of Leicester, UK
> 0116 252 3263
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Accident and Emergency Academic List [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Bethel, Jim
> Sent: 06 June 2012 12:04
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: ACAD-AE-MED Digest - 28 May 2012 to 5 Jun 2012 (#2012-34)
>
> Anything to do with Walsgrave being designated the MTC on March 26? - cant believe it would make a 6% difference but it would be useful for you to know what category of patient your 6% reduction represents
>
> Jim Bethel
>
> ________________________________________
> From: Accident and Emergency Academic List [[log in to unmask]] on behalf of ACAD-AE-MED automatic digest system [[log in to unmask]]
> Sent: 06 June 2012 00:01
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: ACAD-AE-MED Digest - 28 May 2012 to 5 Jun 2012 (#2012-34)
>
> There is 1 message totaling 36 lines in this issue.
>
> Topics of the day:
>
> 1. Attendances
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Date: Tue, 5 Jun 2012 22:21:08 +0100
> From: Andrew Volans <[log in to unmask]>
> Subject: Re: Attendances
>
> We are up 4% on last year and we have seen a 3% per annum
> increase over the last 15 years.
>
>
> On Mon, 28 May 2012 09:01:13 +0000
> Matthew Dunn <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>> Just got our figures out. April's attendances were down
>> by 6% compared to the previous April. Could just be
>> normal variation, but has anyone else had this? If so,
>> any explanations?
>>
>> Matt Dunn
>>
>>
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> End of ACAD-AE-MED Digest - 28 May 2012 to 5 Jun 2012 (#2012-34)
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