*Prediction & Selection in Criminology; or is the new police science up
its own posterior?*
Date - 25 June 2012 at 4pm
Venue - George Square, Edinburgh
This local Edinburgh seminar will be delivered by Professor Tim Hope.
Tim is Professor of Criminology, University of Salford, Manchester. He
has been a Senior Visiting Research Fellow at the Scottish Centre for
Crime and Justice Research, University of Edinburgh.
Abstract:-
The fundamental divide in criminology, lies between those who seek to
predict the probability of criminal justice outcomes, such as arrest or
conviction, from antecedent information about subjects and those who
believe that subjects are selected by virtue of their posterior
probability of encountering criminal justice. While for many years the
latter view has predominated in sociological criminology, more recently,
a ‘new police science’ has emerged that reasserts the possibility of
prediction as a basis for a more effective criminal justice system.
Using empirical examples, this paper argues that the new police science
has confused itself (and others) in failing to recognise the epistemic
difficulty in criminology of reconciling anterior and posterior
probabilistic reasoning; that is, of reconciling the ‘positive’
prediction of behaviour with the ‘selective’ application of punishment.
Awareness of this difficulty prompts a return to a fundamental
penological question.
Please register for a place at:- www.aqmen.ac.uk/events/thope
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