The UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH
SCHOOL OF MATHEMATICS
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Date: Friday 10 February 2012 at 3pm
Location: 6301 JCMB
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David Lagnado (University College London)
Causal idioms – a framework for evidential reasoning (Notice and abstract)
Abstract
In everyday life, as well as more specialised contexts such as legal or
medical decision making, people make judgments based on complex bodies
of interrelated evidence. What psychological processes do they use, and
how do these relate to formal methods of evidence evaluation? This talk
will assess the applicability of Bayesian networks, both as a normative
and descriptive model for evidential reasoning. We will outline a novel
framework for evidential reasoning based on causal idioms (Fenton,
Lagnado & Neil, 2011). These idioms can be combined and reused to
capture complex bodies of evidence. This approach is applied to witness
and alibi testimony. We show how the framework captures critical aspects
of witness reliability, and the potential interrelations between witness
reliabilities and other hypotheses and evidence in a legal case. We also
report several empirical studies which suggest that people’s intuitive
inferences fit well with the qualitative aspects of the framework.
Tea and coffee will be available after the seminar in the Mathematics
Common Room (5212).
This seminar series is a part of Maxwell Institute seminar series.
Note the updated seminar schedule:
http://www.maths.ed.ac.uk/~nbochkin/StatisticsSeminar.html
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Dr Natalia Bochkina
Lecturer in Statistics
School of Mathematics
King’s Buildings
University of Edinburgh
Mayfield Road
Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ
Tel: 0131 650 8597
Email: [log in to unmask]
Webpage: http://www.maths.ed.ac.uk/~nbochkin/
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