University of Edinburgh
School of Mathematics
Statistics Seminar
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Date: Friday 27 January 2012 at 3pm
Location: 6301 JCMB
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Giles Innocent (Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland)
Analysis of Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) data using
Chapman-Kolmogorov equations and Bayesian MCMC
Abstract
Frequently disease data are only imperfectly observed. We know the
status of individuals (susceptible, infectious or immune) at certain
time points but do not know the exact time at which transition from one
state to another occurred. Where animals show no, or only short-duration
immunity the situation is made particularly difficult as there is no way
of telling how many state changes have occurred. We have developed an
approach to this problem using a Chapman-Kolmogorov equation to describe
how the probability of the state of a group of individuals changes over
time. This allows us to calculate the likelihood of the observed animal
statuses at the time an observation was made. Using this approach we are
able to sample from the posterior distribution for these parameters
using a Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach.
Tea and coffee will be available after the seminar in the Mathematics
Common Room (5212).
http://www.maths.ed.ac.uk/~nbochkin/StatisticsSeminar.html
This seminar series is a part of Maxwell Institute seminar series.
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Dr Natalia Bochkina
Lecturer in Statistics
School of Mathematics
King’s Buildings
University of Edinburgh
Mayfield Road
Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ
Tel: 0131 650 8597
Email: [log in to unmask]
Webpage: http://www.maths.ed.ac.uk/~nbochkin/
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