Dear all,
Please find details of a forthcoming meeting at the RSS below.
Best wishes,
Bill Browne
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Royal Statistical Society - General Applications Section meeting
Thursday 20th October 2011 @ RSS HQ, Errol Street, London
1.45pm GAS AGM followed by
2pm -5pm (tea/coffee @ 3.20pm) Meeting on "Statistics in Veterinary Science"
Please note this event is free but pre-registration is encouraged. Email
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Programme
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2pm – William Browne (University of Bristol)
"It shouldn't happen to a vet's data – the use of statistics in
veterinary science"
Abstract:
Four years ago I left the comparative safety of a mathematics department to
undertake an adventure in more applied statistics by joining a veterinary
sciences department. In this talk I will introduce in a light-hearted way
some of the ways that statistics and in particular simulation based methods
can and are used in veterinary science research. I will aim to answer
questions like:
How does one judge if a welfare assurance scheme is accurate? Are chicken
headless? Are Welshmen tall? Are rats optimistic?
I will also introduce the other speakers who all have interests that
overlap with mine and I will leave them deal with the more political
sensitive questions like are badgers to blame for TB!
2.40pm – Martin Green (University of Nottingham)
"What do vets think? Elicitation of clinical beliefs in veterinary medicine"
Abstract:
The clinical beliefs and attitudes of veterinary surgeons have a
fundamental impact on the healthcare of animals. They are important in
terms of the actions taken by vets for treatment and prevention, and also
in how new information is interpreted and incorporated into clinical
practice.
In this talk, we explore, within a quantitative framework, the variability
in clinical beliefs of farm animal veterinary surgeons and the causes and
consequences of this variation. We use a Bayesian framework in which
clinical beliefs and uncertainties of veterinarians are represented as
(prior) probability distributions. We illustrate results obtained from a
large scale, national elicitation of veterinary beliefs and discuss why the
results are important in terms of disease control and future research. We
argue that a clear understanding of stakeholders' beliefs is essential to
design research that will ultimately change clinical practice.
3.20pm Coffee/Tea
3.40pm Christl Donnelly (Imperial College, London)
"Science and Policy - Badger Culling to Control Bovine TB"
Abstract:
Scientific evidence is presented regarding European badgers (Meles meles)
as transmitters of M. bovis infection to cattle and badger culling as one
component of a control program to reduce TB incidence in cattle herds.
Badger culling strategies are currently under consideration in England
following a public consultation which ended in September 2011. In Wales
Environment Minister John Griffiths announced on 21 June 2011 that a review
was to take place of the scientific evidence "regarding the eradication of
bovine TB in Wales" saying "Bovine TB is the subject of considerable
debate. This is also true of the huge body of scientific research related
to the disease." The evidence for and against particular forms of badger
culling will be compiled in order to identify the most effective policy
options.
4.20pm Theodore Kypraios (University of Nottingham)
"Real-time risk-prediction for emerging infectious diseases"
Abstract:
The UK outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth disease in 2001 demonstrated that a
quantitative understanding of large-scale disease spread could aid in the
formulation of appropriate control strategies. Mathematical modelling is a
useful tool which can been used to predict the likely course of a disease
outbreak. Such an approach relies on various parameters specifying
quantities such as transmission and detection rates. Estimating these
parameters is a non-trivial task due to the inherent dependence in the data
as well as the fact that the infection process is rarely observed.
In this talk we present a generic Bayesian statistical framework for
rigorous inference on epidemic dynamics which overcomes these difficulties,
and thereby provides truly quantitative predictions of future risk. This
methodology is illustrated with two examples: Highly Pathogenic Avian
Influenza and foot-and-mouth disease.
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Professor W.J. Browne
Work Phone: 0117 9289428
E-Mail: [log in to unmask]
Web: <http://seis.bris.ac.uk/~frwjb/>
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