Dear all,
The Edinburgh local group of the Royal Statistical Society will be
hosting the following event on 11th October; it is free to attend, and
is open to all.
Tuesday 11th October 2011
Colin Aitken and Amy Wilson (School of Mathematics, University of Edinburgh)
Evaluation of evidence relating to traces of cocaine on banknotes
Venue: ICMS building, 15 South College Street (Edinburgh EH8 9AA)
The meeting will start at 6pm, with tea and coffee from 5.30pm
Abstract: Banknotes can be seized from crime scenes as evidence of
illicit drug use / dealing. Mass Spec Analytical Ltd. (MSA), an
analytical chemistry company in Bristol, have developed a technique to
analyse the levels of drugs on banknotes. They have collected data from
banknotes seized in criminal investigations, as well as from banknotes
from the general circulation. For each note tested, data are available
on the peak area for cocaine. Some of the principles involved in
analysing these data will be introduced, focusing on the likelihood of
the data under each of two propositions: that a set of seized banknotes
is associated with drug crime, and that these banknotes are from the
general circulation. The aim of the research is to determine and
evaluate the associated likelihood ratio. The problems faced in the
calculation of the likelihood ratio are discussed. Models based on
Hidden Markov Models with autoregression will be described, with some
preliminary results.
Best wishes, Adam Butler
Secretary, Edinburgh local group of the RSS
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