Dear all,
The RSS local group (Lancashire & East Cumbria) is pleased to be hosting
a talk by the RSS president, Valerie Isham.
Thursday, 16 June.
Talk: 4pm in Fylde LT1, Fylde College, Lancaster University LA1 4YF:
Epidemics and rumours: the effect of network structure on transmission
dynamics
Followed by a wine reception in the social area, Postgraduate Statistics
Centre, Fylde College: wine, soft drinks and nibbles provided.
Abstract
The basic (SIR) epidemic model for the spread of infection in a
homogeneously-mixing population is a special case of a more general
stochastic model used for the spread of information (a `rumour'). In
both cases it is well known that there is a threshold for widespread
transmission.
More generally, for both epidemics and rumours, there is particular
interest in using a network to represent population structure. This
ensures that some pairs of individuals are never in contact, and direct
spread between them cannot occur. Natural applications are to the spread
of infection or information on social networks.
In this talk, I will review simple epidemic and rumour models, and
describe networks generated by a range of random mechanisms. I will then
discuss the effect of different network structures on the transmission
dynamics of epidemics or rumours on networks and, in particular, the
effect of different network properties on thresholds for widespread
transmission.
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