Bob,
Sorry to labour the point but at the level of generality we're
debating - which is of considerable importance because
this is the level most ordinary people operate at - it is my
understanding that the world's climate was heading for the
next ice-age until some 100 years or so ago when homo sapiens started
to reverse the trend.
So it would not be unreasonable to assume that the contribution of
natural causes to global warming would have been
predominantly negative. "Technically" this is indeed a contribution,
but in everyday parlance if somebody asks me for
a contribution to the next round, they'd look askance if I actually
took something away.
There is also another semantic debate lurking in the side-lines here
in that although it is homo sapiens that is raising
green house gas concentrations to unprecedented levels, it is 'nature'
that is reacting 'naturally' to this stimulus - over
-reacting might be many people's thought - so in a sense the
phenomenon is almost totally 'natural'.
Perhaps best stick to the line it is we who are mucking things up and
it is therefore us to try and get back on track.
Brian
On 29 Jan 2011, at 11:03, Bob Ward wrote:
> Brian,
>
> You have misquoted me - I stated that it is technically correct that
> natural causes have contributed to climate change. Remember that the
> IPCC Fourth Assessment Report concluded: "Most of the observed
> increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century
> is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic
> greenhouse gas concentrations."
>
> As there is still uncertainty about the precise contributions of
> natural and man-made factors to the warming of the last 50 years,
> one cannot claim that human activities are wholly responsible, and
> it is not wrong to consider that natural causes have made a
> contribution. The problem is claiming that most or all of the recent
> warming is due to natural factors.
>
> Bob
>
> ________________________________
>
> From: Discussion list for the Crisis Forum on behalf of Brian Orr
> Sent: Fri 28/01/2011 20:13
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: New opinion poll on climate change
>
>
>
> Bob,
>
> A secondary point.
>
> "Climate change is technically down to natural causes"
>
> I presume what you are confirming here is that the climate
> is 'inherently' subject to natural causes. Of course, the very
> significant
> new factor - increasing green-houses gases as a result of human
> activity - is swamping the natural effects, but 'technically' they're
> still
> present.
>
> Brian Orr
>
> On 28 Jan 2011, at 18:59, Bob Ward wrote:
>
>> The Department for Transport has just published the results of an
>> interesting opinion poll from August last year:
>> http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/trsnstatsatt
>> /climatejan2011report
>>
>> Predictably, the Daily Mail has focused on the small but detectable
>> change in the proportion of people saying that they are very
>> convinced
>> or fairly convinced that the climate is changing, from 83% in August
>> 2009 (ie before Climategate etc) to 74% in August 2010. But given the
>> amount of misleading nonsense in the mainstream media and blogosphere
>> over that 12-month period, it is perhaps more remarkable that
>> three-quarters of the population still agree that the climate is
>> changing - it shows that the self-proclaimed 'sceptics' are not
>> really
>> having much success with their campaigns of misinformation.
>>
>> Unfortunately, the poll did not include a question on whether climate
>> change is being mainly driven by human activities, although it did
>> include a question about the types of things that contribute to
>> climate
>> change, to which only 5% answered that they don't believe in climate
>> change and only 15% answered 'natural causes' (which is technically
>> correct anyway). However, it also shows a relatively low level of
>> public
>> awareness of the specific human contributors to climate change (for
>> instance only 59% think that emissions from road transport
>> contribute).
>>
>> The proportion of people who report that they are very concerned or
>> fairly concerned about climate change only fell from 76% to 71%
>> between
>> August 2009 and August 2010. And 72% say that they strongly agree or
>> tend to agree that they would be prepared to change their behaviour
>> to
>> limit climate change, compared with 73% in August 2009.
>>
>> So I would say that these results show that Climategate etc has had a
>> measurable but relatively small effect on people's acceptance of the
>> reality that the climate is changing, it has had an even smaller
>> effect
>> on whether they are concerned and almost no effect on whether they
>> would
>> be prepared to act. But there remains relatively low awareness of
>> exactly which human activities are driving climate change.
>>
>> Bob Ward
>>
>> Policy and Communications Director
>> Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
>> London School of Economics and Political Science
>> Houghton Street
>> London WC2A 2AE
>>
>> http://www.lse.ac.uk/grantham
>>
>> Tel. +44 (0) 20 7106 1236
>> Mob. +44 (0) 7811 320346
>>
>>
>> Please access the attached hyperlink for an important electronic
>> communications disclaimer: http://lse.ac.uk/emailDisclaimer
>
>
>
> Please access the attached hyperlink for an important electronic
> communications disclaimer: http://lse.ac.uk/emailDisclaimer
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