Is there any means by which we can _compare_ two probabilities e.g. by
saying that one is greater than the other, when we have no means of
evaluating either?
e.g. I have no way of evaluating the probability that I will by chance bang
into someone I know when I am in London next week, but I feel it is far
higher than the probability of the "same policeman books someone twice"
event which started this thread.
Also, when I _do_ bang into someone I know by chance, I often contemplate
how many I must have 'just missed' banging into because they were say 100
yards away rather than just 10 say, and therefore avoided being noticed.
JOHN BIBBY
On 10 December 2010 10:40, Gavin and Rosemary Ross <
[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> Probabilities of rare events reported after they have occurred are not
> easily defined. Such events are common in literature, of course, and most
> people in every day life sometimes come across an acquaintance in unlikely
> places. The only valid procedure would be to write down in advance the
> details of a possible rare event, specifying the spatial and temporal range
> in which it might occur, and place it in a sealed envelope. Even then we
> are in danger of stretching the definition of the event to fit the
> observation, as do those determined to believe in astrology, prophesies,
> oracles and the like.
>
> Gavin Ross
> Harpenden, Herts
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> *From:* clivedurdle <[log in to unmask]>
> *To:* [log in to unmask]
> *Sent:* Thursday, December 09, 2010 10:20 PM
> *Subject:* Speeding
>
>
> http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/08/speeding-driver-new-zealand-policeman?INTCMP=SRCH
>
> "
> Booked for speeding in England and New Zealand ... by the same policeman
>
> Constable Andy Flitton recognised by driver he had booked in London as he
> wrote out ticket in rural South Island town"
>
>
> OK, what is the probability of that?
>
> Live long and prosper!
>
> Clive
>
> Clive Durdle
>
>
>
>
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