COMPLEXITY AND STATISTICS: TIPPING POINTS AND CRASHES
A Royal Statistical Society meeting sponsored by
Industrial Mathematics Knowledge Transfer Network
and
Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge Judge
Business School
Date: 11am - 5pm Friday 22nd October 2010
Registration from 10:30am
Venue: Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol Street, London, EC1Y 8LX.
Summary:
There is much interest in the possibility of detecting and predicting
critical changes in complex systems. Climate tipping points, earthquakes
and financial crashes are three examples. A variety of techniques for
tackling these challenges are being developed by physicists,
mathematicians and statisticians, but their success is still a matter
for debate. This meeting brings together researchers and practitioners
from several disciplines to present and discuss their ideas about this
important topic, and aims to stimulate further interest and advances in
the field.
Full details are available at
http://www.rss.org.uk/main.asp?page=1321&event=1186
Speakers:
DIDIER SORNETTE (ETH Zurich)
Parallels between earthquake prediction, financial crash prediction and
epileptic seizures predictions
MICHAEL THOMPSON (University of Cambridge/University College London) and
JAN SIEBER (University of Portsmouth)
Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique
CLAUDIE BEAULIEU (Princeton University)
Change point detection using the informational approach with
applications in atmospheric sciences
VALERIE LIVINA and TIM LENTON (University of East Anglia)
Applying degenerate fingerprinting in studying climate tipping points
COSMA SHALIZI (Carnegie Mellon University/Santa Fe Institute)
Markovian, predictive, and conceivably causal representations of
stochastic processes
Registration:
You need not be a member of the Royal Statistical Society to attend, but
registration is required via the web form that will soon be available from:
http://www.rss.org.uk/environmental
Twenty free places for Retired/Student Fellows are available courtesy of
the meeting sponsors and will be allocated on a first-come, first-served
basis. Otherwise, registration fees, which cover lunch and refreshments,
are as follows:
Retired/Student Fellows £18 - with 20 free places allocated on a first
come first serve basis
CStat/GradStat £18
Fellows £20
Members £25
Non-members £30
Programme:
10:30 Registration and Refreshments
11:00 Welcome
11:15 Didier Sornette
12:00 Michael Thompson and Jan Sieber
12:45 Lunch
13:45 Claudie Beaulieu
14:30 Valerie Livina
15:15 Refreshments
15:45 Cosma Shalizi
16:30 Panel discussion
17:00 Close
Directions:<_http://www.rss.org.uk/pdf/RSSMap.pdf_>
Further details are available on the Environmental Statistics Section
website
<https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/filearea.cgi?LMGT1=envstat&a=get&f=/index.html>
The meeting organisers are Chris Ferro (University of Exeter) and Nick
Watkins (British Antarctic Survey). For further details, please visit
<_http://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/files/envstat/index.html_> or contact Chris
Ferro <[log in to unmask]>.
Sponsors links:
Industrial Mathematics Knowledge Transfer Network
_https://ktn.innovateuk.org/web/mathsktn_
Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge Judge
Business School
_http://www.risk.jbs.cam.ac.uk/_
--
***********************************************************
Richard Wilkinson
Lecturer in Statistics
School of Mathematical Sciences
University of Nottingham
Nottingham, NG7 2RD
[log in to unmask]
http://www.maths.nottingham.ac.uk/personal/pmzrdw/
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