Humphrey's comment on the over-response reminds me that in the 1840s two 
registrars were goaled for over registration of births and deaths in their 
districts, a third died before his offence came to light.

Peter Park
Fulwood
Lancashire


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Humphrey Southall" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Wednesday, July 07, 2010 3:59 PM
Subject: Re: [LOCAL-HISTORY] 2011 census


Should have mentioned that there will be multiple ways of responding. The US 
census did this in 2000, and creates the new issue of OVER-response, i.e. 
people who respond by more than one method, possibly because more than one 
member of the household replies independently by different methods.

This makes the quality of the address list used to manage the census quite 
crucial, and it is clear that the address list used in many areas, like 
Manchester, in 2001 was rubbish.

Reverting to history, if you read the footnotes to the 1851 parish table, it 
is clear they found that earlier censuses had missed whole villages. This 
was especially an issue where new industrial settlements had appeared in 
what were previously unoccupied moors, often extra-parochial. It is maybe 
some consolation that just about every census was seen as a catastrophe in 
its immediate aftermath, although the reasons keep changing.

My personal prediction now is that 2011 will be seen as a catastrophe 
because refusal to complete the form becomes a much more visible issue. 
Having "government busy-bodies" going back repeatedly to addresses in hard 
to enumerate areas is going to strike some people as harassment ...

Humphrey

>>> GATLEY David A <[log in to unmask]> 07/07/2010 15:36 >>>
Most interesting.

I've seen the sample census on the ONS Web Site and note that the census
might now also be completed online.

What sould William Farr have made of this?

David

-----Original Message-----
From: From: Local-History list [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On
Behalf Of Humphrey Southall
Sent: 07 July 2010 15:27
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [LOCAL-HISTORY] 2011 census

I am in the odd position of being a historian (of sorts) and on the
academic advisory panel for the 2011 census -- the other members are
mostly geographers or demographers, but not historical ones.

It is very noticeable that although there certainly is a legal
requirement to complete the census, ONS officials in the census division
do not rely on it, and tend to see a steadily dwindling response rate as
a fact of life. Under a hundred people were prosecuted for not
completing the 2001 census, when clearly some millions of people failed
to do it. My sense is that in practice you had to be very public about
your active refusal to complete the reform before legal action was
taken.

That said, 2011 is going to be done differently. In most of the country
forms will be both posted out and posted back, with detailed tracking of
who has sent a form back (there will be RFID chips on the forms, so it
will be possible to "scan" a mailsack of forms to see who has returned
one long before the replies are processed).

The enumerators will be targeted on "hard to enumerate" areas, which
will be defined in quite a detailed way (i.e. not simply a few inner
city areas, but specific groups of streets in many parts of the
country), enabling repeated visits to addresses that have not responded.
The census division are expecting this to lead to some rise in
prosecutions, into the low hundreds, but while leaving the last meeting
I and another member of the advisory panel agreed that there might be a
MUCH bigger increase, as it became undeniable that lots of people were
not just failing to complete the form but definitely refusing.
Interesting times.

Best wishes,

Humphrey Southall


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