Dear allstaters,
Those of you that are interested in football in addition to statistics
may have a look at the web-page
http://vm.nr.no/indexEng.html
containing winner probabilities for each team during the FIFA World Cup
in South Africa.
The probabilities will be updated daily during the tournament. The
probabilities are based on a Poisson model. The model is estimated by
maximizing a penalized and robustified Poisson-likelihood, based on
expert opinions before the tournament starts and the match results
during the tournament.
Me and my colleagues at The Norwegian Computing Center has made such
types of predictions since the World Cup in 1998 as a way of promoting
statistics as something that are not boring, but funny.
Best regards,
Magne Aldrin email: [log in to unmask]
Chief Research Scientist tel +47 22 85 25 00
Norwegian Computing Center fax +47 22 69 76 60
P.O. Box 114 Blindern WWW: http://www.nr.no/~aldrin/
N-0314 Oslo
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