Dear all
Unfortunately, the evidence suggesting there is no slow down in the Gulf
Stream is yet another stick which the sceptics can use to beat over the
head those concerned about the impacts of industrial activity on the
climate and people. One day, when I get the time, I want to work out a
position against these 'large scale discontinuities' which are often
invoked to demand action (the other being ice sheet melt and attendant
sea level rises). Whilst no doubt important impacts I think it would be
much more useful to get a communicative handle on all the myriad of
relatively small scale, more localised, more immediate extreme weather
events (floodings, heatwaves, strong winds) which are never forecast
more than a day or two ahead (if at all) and which climate models
cannot account for. That's where the damage and harm will come from,
those are the impacts that people will experience in the short term, the
predictable surprises (predictable in that we know they are happening,
and will continue to happen, we just don't know when and in what form).
I think it is the gradual accumulation of these events on our lives and
surroundings that will, in the aggregate, add up to the 'change' element
of climate change.
Chris
On 31/03/2010 12:25, Alastair McIntosh wrote:
> Very many thanks for that on the "Gulf Stream", David (see below), all the
> moreso from yourself as an oceanographer.
>
> What you say concurs with what Duncan McLaren at FOES and Adrian Shaw,
> climate change officer at the Church of Scotland have also suggested in
> private emails this morning. Adrian also sent the following link to what
> seems to be a good article on the question that was published in The
> Scotsman -
> http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/news/Villain-of-the-winter39s-tale.5961809.j
> p
>
> Alastair.
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Discussion list for the Crisis Forum
> [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Cromwell D.
> Sent: 31 March 2010 12:16
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: Phil Jones, UEA, exonerated on ClimateGate ... and "Gulf
> Steam"?
>
> Thanks Alastair,
>
> Interesting to see those.
>
> On Gulf Stream measurements - they're as reliable as humanly/technically
> possible. But, as you suggest, the relatively short operational timespan for
> the RAPID array (across the North Atlantic near 26 degrees N) has yielded no
> real evidence of any slowdown so far:
>
> http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8589512.stm
>
> Background info: http://www.noc.soton.ac.uk/rapid/
>
> Best wishes
>
> David
>
>
> On 31/03/2010 10:39, "Alastair McIntosh"<[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>
> Folks ... For the report on the findings on the House of Commons enquiry
> see: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8595483.stm
>
> Also, for context in terms of the level of FOI requests that were being
> made, see the attached cutting from The Week in February.
>
> Lastly, given that the University of Alabama Hunstsville (UAH) sattelite
> data shows that, worldwide, both January and February have been
> exceptionally warm - about 0.6 C above average (Europe and parts of N.
> America were exceptions, not the rule)* - does anybody know what has been
> happening to the "Gulf Stream" over this period? I have not picked up on any
> commentary about this, so there's maybe nothing to comment on, but it would
> seem to my untutored eye that a dramatic cooling in N. Atlantic areas could
> be consistent with a slow-down. However, if I understand rightly current
> measurement of this is open to many questions of reliability, so maybe
> nobody's able to say on such a short time-span?
>
> Alastair.
>
>
> * UAH data sources on Jan/Feb warming in 2010 (paradoxically, from a climate
> change researcher/skeptic website at UAH) :
> January (including world isotherm map):
> http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/02/january-2010-global-tropospheric-tempera
> ture-map/
> February:
> http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/03/february-2010-uah-global-temperature-upd
> ate-version-5-3-unveiled/
>
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