Bearing in mind the film 'Who killed the electric car?' and the fact the
oil companies are buying the firms with the patents on the best battery
technology I wonder if we should have a campaign against the oil
companies over this issue? Motorists are going to be very angry when
they discover they could be driving much more cheaply if the oil
companies allowed it. This could then lead on to a campaign over climate
denial, which is funded by the oil industry
Chris
http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/24/fuel-batteries-subsidies-technology-ecotech-electric-vehicles.html?boxes=Homepagelighttop
Transportation
The Hurdles For Electric Cars
Knowledge@Wharton, 03.24.10, 12:10 PM EDT
A high price tag is just the first of several challenges electric
vehicles face.
Green Evolution: Managing The Risks, Reaping The Benefits
More from Knowledge@Wharton
This is an excerpt from an article in a recent Knowledge@Wharton special
report called Green Evolution: Managing the Risks, Reaping the Benefits.
Electric vehicles face very uncertain prospects in the market. According
to 2009 survey data from Pike Research, 48% of Americans are willing to
consider a plug-in hybrid vehicle that can achieve a 40-mile range on
batteries alone. But in the same survey, a solid 83% say they would
consider such a car if it cost no more than 10% more than their current
car. Achieving that kind of price parity would be very difficult, given
high battery costs.
A similar pattern influenced General Motors' decision to produce the
EV-1 in the late 1990s. The company was encouraged by the number of
"hand-wavers" who say they would consider leasing the car, but in the
end only 600 (in California and Arizona) actually did.
That's why, says Wharton management professor John Paul MacDuffie, fuel
prices loom so large in estimating how EVs will fare when they enter
showrooms at the end of this year. A few points to consider:
--Escalating fuel prices are a tonic for the sale of fuel-efficient cars
and, likely, EVs. A 2009 survey for Cars.com found that "40% of car
shoppers say they would consider purchasing a new fuel-efficient car
right away if gas were over $4 a gallon." When the price was only
slightly less ($3.75), only 29% said they would make the switch. SUV
sales dropped precipitously when gas did actually reach $4 a gallon, but
they rebounded when prices dropped. Given this, a federal fuel tax or a
price floor for gasoline (both politically impossible in the U.S.
Congress) would provide a more stable sales environment for EVs.
--The $7,500 federal tax credit for purchasers of battery vehicles and
plug-in hybrids is essential for their early adoption. Carmakers such as
Fisker, Tesla and Nissan ( NSANY - news - people ) often quote the cost
of their new vehicles inclusive of that rebate (and sometimes minus the
batteries too). But will that generous rebate remain in place as the
market share for EVs escalates? Darryl Siry, a former Tesla marketing
executive who now blogs for Wired, has called for the tax credit to be
transformed into a permanent $7,500 cash rebate at the time of purchase.
Siry adds, "The tax credit also should be structured so a commercial
entity can claim it if they purchase the battery pack for the purpose of
leasing it back to a consumer." Such incentives helped make the federal
Cash for Clunkers program a major success.
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Reader Comments
First, you other people who commented are just flat out ignorant. These
cars cannot be "made using the sun on your roof." Solar Photovoltaic
cells are not that efficient. They are good supplementa....
Read All Comments (3)Post a Comment--The U.S. could lose the battery
race to Asia. It's unlikely that the U.S. will establish a beachhead for
lithium-ion battery manufacturing without federal subsidies, given the
far-cheaper production costs in China, Korea and Japan. But strategic
federal Department of Energy loans are in place, and they are
jump-starting nascent industries in economically depressed regions,
including Michigan and Indiana. Last April, for instance, Michigan found
itself with $1.7 billion in federal battery largesse. Among the
companies building battery plants there are Massachusetts-based A123
Systems, Korea's LG Chem, a joint venture involving Dow Chemical ( DOW -
news - people ) and Kokam America, and Johnson Controls ( JCI - news -
people )-Saft.
--Electric cars don't use fossil fuels directly, and require less fossil
fuel energy than internal combustion engines. But the batteries require
significant amounts of lithium, which is not in virtually unlimited
supply (unlike hydrogen). Principal lithium suppliers include China and
Bolivia (with the latter having as much as 5.4 million tons, 10 times
more than the U.S.) The next-largest supply is in Chile (3 million
tons). Estimates of the size of the lithium market vary widely, from
54,000 tons to 500,000 tons. Given that, it's clear that the U.S. can't
rely on its domestic supply alone. So, in a way, the U.S. will remain
dependent on "foreign fuel." Lithium supply is probably a bigger issue
than the more frequently raised questions about environmental battery
disposal.
The major automakers, including Nissan and Ford, and startups such as
Tesla Motors, Fisker and Coda, may be competitors, but they agree that
the electrification of the automobile is inevitable. How fast that will
happen--and which companies will emerge as technology winners--is still
very much undecided.
See Also:
Preparing For The Electric Car Future
What To Know Before Buying A Green Car
The Electric Car Battery Glut
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