Does anyone know of any studies and/or published data on either of the
following:
1) longitudinal or 'before and after' studies of the traffic generation (or modal
shift) effects of urban intensification i.e. where the population density was
increased following development/redevelopment?
2) aggregate data which shows the relationship between population density of
small areas (e.g. census tracts, electoral divisions etc.) and trip rates or
modal shares or vehicle miles travelled, for a whole country?
On the first point, there is a very extensive literature on the relationship
between density and travel outcomes, but almost entirely based on cross-
sectional data. So we know how density is associated with travel behaviour,
but we know very little about how travel behaviour changes following urban
intensification. On the second point, it is possible to calculate the 'gross'
relationships for the UK using census data at ward level. The census data for
the US (on the Census Bureau website) only shows this for a sample
of "places" of varying sizes. I haven't seen anything for any other countries.
The reasons for these questions are connected to the 'paradox of
intensification' - on which I gave a paper at the 2008 UTSG conference. We
submitted a short journal article on this last year. The review comments came
back suggesting they wanted something in greater depth, which I am working
on now.
Best Regards
Steve Melia Senior Lecturer in Planning and Transport
University of the West of England
0117 3283267
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