THE CAMBRIDGE STATISTICS DISCUSSION GROUP

Tuesday 20th October 2009 7:15 for 7:45

Large Lecture Theatre,
Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit,
Chaucer Road, Cambridge

Monte Carlo methods in General Insurance

Andrew McGuinness
EMB Consulting


Abstract:

Andrew’s aim is to firstly give an overview of the field of General Insurance 
and the wide range of areas in which statistics plays a role.  He will explain 
the three fundamental questions that General Insurance actuaries are called to 
answer.He will then focus on the area of financial modelling, and explain how 
this gives us the answer for the capital question, and goes beyond it. 

Andrew will focus on some specific examples, explain some key challenges that 
the purest statisticians would certainly struggle with and talk about how we 
go about solving these.  
He will also give you a demonstration of what a full 'internal model' run with a 
Monte Carlo simulation engine might look like.

Finally he would like to talk about some of the big current issues facing the 
industry, and some areas of research interest.

Speaker:

Andrew McGuinness has a mathematics degree from the University of Cambridge,
and qualified as an actuary in 2007. He joined EMB after graduating in 2002
and is based in the Cambridge office.

Andrew has a wide range of modelling experience and has implemented models
for a number of enterprises, ranging from large Bermudian reinsurers to
small Lloyd's syndicates; from vast multi-year models with quarterly 
projection,
to single period models with intricate representations of catastrophe 
exposure
and highly complex reinsurance programmes; and for a variety of purposes:
including regulatory capital, long-term forecasting and business planning.

He also has experience of economic scenario and asset modelling, and London
market reserving. He has been heavily involved in the training and ongoing
support EMB provides.

Annual General Meeting: Andrew's talk will be preceded by a brief AGM.

Directions: Chaucer Road is off Trumpington Road - if you are heading
away from the city centre it is the first right after the junction
with Brooklands Avenue. Number 15 is at the end on the left and is a
large Victorian House with a more modern extension to its right.
The entrance is in the porch located in the middle of the older section on
the left as you come in and is accessed by ascending a few steps from the
car park. Cars may be parked there. The outside door will be locked at 7:45.
Arrivals after 7:45 may gain admittance by contacting the secretary on
07761769436.

Next Meetings:

November - Anne Campbell(Cambs & P'boro Mental Health P'ship and former 
MP for Cambridge).
2nd February - Bill Janeway (Warburg Pincus & Cambridge University).
2nd March - Tony Sabin (Amgen).
March - Doug Easton (CRUK Genetic Epidemiology Unit).


Supper: Some members eat regularly in the University Centre before
each talk meeting in the downstairs bar at 5-45pm. Feel free to join them.

Secretary: Peter Watson, MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit,
15 Chaucer Road, Cambridge CB2 7EF;telephone 01223 355294 Extension 801;
E-mail [log in to unmask]

FOR SECURITY PURPOSES COULD ANYONE INTENDING TO ATTEND THE MEETING PLEASE
LET PETER WATSON KNOW.

Take a look at our website: 
http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/people/peter.watson/csdg.html




-- 

-------------------------------------------




Peter Watson
MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit
15 Chaucer Road
Cambridge
CB2 7EF


http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk
http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/people/peter.watson/
Phone: DIRECT DIAL 1223 273712
 	+44 1223 355294 x801 
Fax:    + 44 1223 359062