THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY
Oxford Local Group Meeting
Professor Christl Donnelly
MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling,
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology,
Imperial College London
On behalf of the WHO Rapid Pandemic Assessment Collaboration
"Early investigations of the novel
pandemic influenza A (H1N1)"
1pm Monday 22nd June 2009
Richard Doll Lecture Theatre
Richard Doll Building, Old Road Campus,
Roosevelt Drive, Oxford
All Welcome
A novel influenza A (H1N1) virus has spread rapidly across the globe. On 11 June 2009, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared that this virus is causing sustained community-level outbreaks more than one WHO region (global pandemic alert level: phase 6). By analyzing the outbreak in Mexico, early data on international spread, and viral genetic diversity, we made an early assessment of transmissibility and severity. Our estimates suggested that 23,000 (range 6,000-32,000) individuals had been infected in Mexico by late April. Clinical severity appears less than that seen in 1918 but comparable with that seen in 1957. Clinical attack rates in children in La Gloria were twice that in adults (<15 years-of-age: 61%, >=15: 29%). Three different epidemiological analyses gave R0 estimates in the range 1.4-1.6, while a genetic analysis gave a central estimate of 1.2. This range of values is consistent with 14 to 73 generations of human-to-human transmission having occurred in Mexico to late April. Transmissibility is therefore substantially higher than seasonal flu, and comparable with lower estimates of R0 obtained from previous influenza pandemics.
For details on how to get to Old Road Campus, please visit http://www.ctsu.ox.ac.uk/contact and click on "How to find us".
RSS Oxford group committee members for 2009 are: Doug Altman, Sarah Darby, Jemma Hopewell (secretary), Steffen Lauritzen (chair),
Paul McGale, Bent Nielsen (treasurer), Maria Quigley, Trevor Ringrose, Andrew Roddam.
For queries, please email [log in to unmask]
Dr Jemma C. Hopewell
Clinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit
Richard Doll Building
University of Oxford
Old Road Campus
Roosevelt Drive
Oxford, OX3 7LF
Tel: +44 (0) 1865 743661
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