Sibertin-Blanc escribió:
> We have made such a study, that wil be presented at the Information
> Technologies in Environmental Engineering ICSC symp., Thessaloniky,
> 28-29 may 2009.
> It is a part of a EU project about the evaluation of
> agro-environmental measures to improve the quality of water from the
> economic, hydrologic and social points of view, and the
> "best" measures will be implemented.
> For the social point of view, we gave a way to evaluate the social
> acceptability, in fact the social feasibility, of each measure, based
> on formalization of a sociological theory, the Sociology of Organized
> Action.
> As for ground results about the quality of these forecasts, we have to
> wait!
>
> regards,
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>
> Le 28 avr. 09 à 15:46, Scott Moss a écrit :
>
>> In a recent discussion among UK agent-based social modellers, I asked
>> whether there has ever been a correct, publicly documented, model-based
>> forecast of a policy impact. There are, of course, many such forecasts
>> tested successfully on past data but none of us were able to produce a
>> single example of a correct forecast of policy impact reported or
>> documented prior to the implementation of the policy.
>>
>> Does anyone know of a correct, real-time, model-based, policy-impact
>> forecast? Please include references to publications of the forecast
>> prior to policy implementation or to some other evidence that the
>> forecast preceded the impact.
>>
>> Many thanks in advance,
>> Scott
>>
>
> Christophe SIBERTIN-BLANC
> ______________________________________________
> IRIT
> Université Toulouse 1 - Sciences Sociales
> Allées de Brienne, F-31042 Toulouse Cedex
> tél : 05 61 12 87 94
>
>
>
>
> =
In 1998 we made forecasts about the effect of different strategies for
unemployment control in the spanish economy. The government presided by
J.M. Aznar put in practice such recomended strategies and unemployment
descended from aprox 23% to aprox 11%. The study based on a model of
Systems Dynamics and other alternative models is published by the
University of Valencia (Spain) in 1999 (in spanish) and was financed by
the regional government.
A. Caselles, L. Ferrer, I. Marínez-de-Lejarza, R. Pla & R. Temre (1999).
Control del Desempleo por Simulación. Universitat de Valencia. Valencia
(Spain). ISBN: 84-370-4167-8.
Greetings
Antonio Caselles
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