On Tue, Apr 28, 2009 at 09:46:57PM +0100, Scott Moss wrote:
> The motivation for the question: In relation to policy, it is common
> for social scientists (including but not exclusively economists) to use
> some a priori reasoning (frequently driven by a theory) to propose
> specific policies or to evaluate the benefits of alternative policies.
> In either case, the presumption must be that the benefits or relative
> benefits of the specified policies can be forecast.
... and are there challenges raised by ergodicity?
> [...]
> The importance of the question: If there is no history or, more weakly,
> no systematic history of successful forecasts of policy impacts, then is
> the standard approach to theory-driven policy advice defensible? If so,
> on what grounds? If not, then is an alternative approach to policy
> analysis and an alternative role for policy modelling indicated?
... can one perhaps obtain clearer models from longitudinal studies
using pseudo-random-bit-sequence stimuli (as a means of avoiding
serious disruption to the live system?) - or are the ergodics,
non-linearities and system delay effects just too complex?
> [...]
> I hope you find the question interesting.
... Indeed. Thanks.
Charlesw
> Scott
"Creativity and innovation are measured not by what is done,
but by what could have been done ... but wasn't"
Disclaimer: http://www.eng.unsw.edu.au/emaildis.htm
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Charles Willock [log in to unmask]
c/- School of Computer Science and Engineering
University of New South Wales,
New South Wales Australia 2052 http://www.cse.unsw.edu.au/~charlesw
|