Part of my job is to forecast local populations in Hertfordshire. I have
developed a simple spreadsheet based method for doing this. I check it by
forecasting the number of school aged pupils, and I am usually within 0.5%
of the actual numbers as recorded in the Pupil Level Annual School Census
(PLASC).
So I was surprised to discover that the number of 0 to 4 year olds
recorded in the GP registration data for the year 2008 is 12% more than my
model's forecast. When I looked back at the GP registrations for that age
class in 2001, it was 6% more than the census count.
I have also noticed that the GP registration data tends to inflate over
time, by about 6% since 2002 (that is, the number of children with
birthdays in, say, 2002 is 6% higher in the end-of-2008 data than it was
in the end-of-2002 data).
Has anyone else noticed this? Should I be getting into a panic about it?
=========
Best wishes
Dr Paul Garcia
Senior Property Review Officer (Demographics)
RSS Campion Fellow
25221
01992555221
07721384649
=====================================
Hoc fama mihi cursum sinuosum secuta nuntiat
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