THE CAMBRIDGE STATISTICS DISCUSSION GROUP
PLEASE NOTE SLIGHTLY LATER START TIME & CHANGE OF SPEAKER:
Thursday 7th May 2009 7:30 for 8:00
Amgen Ltd,
Cambridge Science Park,
Milton Road,
Cambridge CB4 0WG
Rainfall triggered volcanic activity at Soufriere
Hills Volcano, Montserrat.
Adrian Matthews
University of East Anglia
Norwich
Abstract:
On 29 July 2001, the Soufriere Hills Volcano, on the Caribbean island of
Montserrat, experienced a major eruption. This coincided with the passage
of a tropical weather system and 100 mm of rain on the same day. There had
been no significant rain or volcanic activity within at least the preceding
7 months. Coincidence? The talk will present a statistical analysis of
several years of available rainfall and volcanic data from Montserrat.
Far from being a one-off occurrence, such rainfall-triggered volcanic
activity occurs frequently, and may be incorporated into volcanic hazard
prediction models. Some physical-mathematical model results will also be
presented, that try and answer how rainfall can trigger volcanic activity.
Speaker:
Adrian's background is in physics and meteorology. His research interests
are in climate variability and modelling (especially tropical meteorology)
which has involved visits to, amongst others, West Africa and Antarctica,
as well as Montserrat. He is currently a reader in the School of
Environmental Sciences and School of Mathematics at the University of
East Anglia.
Directions: Head north on Milton Road. Two traffic lights before the A14 turn
left into the Science Park (clearly signposted). Turn left at the roundabout.
The meeting takes place at Amgen in the Peterhouse and Downing Room in
Building 216
(See map at http://imaging.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/statswiki/csdg/amgen).
Parking is available on site. There will be no admittance after 8pm.
Arrivals after 8pm can gain admittance by contacting the secretary on 07761769436.
If anyone would like complementary transport to the talk venue from Central Cambridge please inform the secretary in advance of the meeting.
Provisional Next Meeting:
20th October - Andrew McGuinness (EMB Consulting) on 'Uses of Monte Carlo methods in General Insurance'.
Supper: Some members eat regularly in the University Centre before
each talk meeting in the downstairs bar at 5-45pm. Feel free to join them.
Subscriptions: of 1 pound are now due for attending the 2008-2009 session.
Secretary: Peter Watson, MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit,
15 Chaucer Road, Cambridge CB2 7EF;telephone 01223 355294 Extension 801;
E-mail [log in to unmask]
Take a look at our website:
http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/people/peter.watson/csdg.html
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