This IS a very interesting question, and in the case of state
stabilization and reconstruction policies, we're about to see a
significant test of political science theories in afghanistan. Recall
that David Paetreus is a pol sci phd from princeton.
Sent from my iPhone
On Apr 28, 2009, at 10:46 PM, Scott Moss <[log in to unmask]>
wrote:
> I have now had half a dozen responses to my question about policy
> forecasts but none seem to me to provide examples of what I had
> _intended_ as the issue. I must have been unclear. Forgive me if I
> now
> expatiate on the question.
>
> The motivation for the question: In relation to policy, it is common
> for social scientists (including but not exclusively economists) to
> use
> some a priori reasoning (frequently driven by a theory) to propose
> specific policies or to evaluate the benefits of alternative policies.
> In either case, the presumption must be that the benefits or relative
> benefits of the specified policies can be forecast. I am not aware of
> any successful tests of this presumption and none of my colleagues at
> the meeting of UK agent-based modelling experts could point me to a
> successful test in the sense of a well documented correct forecast of
> any policy benefit.
>
> The importance of the question: If there is no history or, more
> weakly,
> no systematic history of successful forecasts of policy impacts,
> then is
> the standard approach to theory-driven policy advice defensible? If
> so,
> on what grounds? If not, then is an alternative approach to policy
> analysis and an alternative role for policy modelling indicated?
>
> What constitutes a successful forecast of policy impact? I suggest
> the
> minimal criteria to be a correct forecast of the direction of change
> in
> the magnitude of specified social indicators together with a
> forecast of
> the time lags between policy action and social response. These seem
> to me to be such weak criteria that nobody could claim that social
> policy modelling has been useful and relevant if they could not be
> satisfied.
>
> There are many cases of correct captures of policy indicators
> calculated
> from past data. What we cannot identify are cases where a policy
> forecast has been published and then the policy implemented and
> found to
> have the forecast impact on social (including economic) indicators
> in a
> forecast time frame.
>
> I hope you find the question interesting.
>
> Scott
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