This seems quite a key test for the inequality theory. In a recession
the poor have less to lose, so inequality, particularly in wealth may
reduce quite dramatically. My local paper tells me that my house is now
worth £50,000 less than it was worth last year, so the gap between me
and those of my neighbours who are in rented property has reduced
considerably. So if Richard Wilkinson is right we should expect some
benefits from this. But I wonder how long it would take such an effect
to develop?
If we want to get publicity for these issues making predictions of this
kind would be a good way of doing it.
Martin Rathfelder
Director
Socialist Health Association
22 Blair Road
Manchester
M16 8NS
0870 013 0065
www.sochealth.co.uk
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Joe Farrington-Douglas wrote:
>
> Interesting stuff, thanks.
>
> In UK John Appleby’s written
> <http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/337/oct28_2/a2259?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=appleby&searchid=1&FIRSTINDEX=0&sortspec=date&resourcetype=HWCIT>
> in BMJ on this from a public finances and unemployment/ mental health
> perspective.
>
> Most commentators’ predictions I’ve seen – including at an NHS Confed
> debate in December – have tended to be gloomy – except for Andrew
> Lansley who made a similar point to those below (e.g. lower income =
> better diet) and got generally mocked for being counter to the
> evidence (viz obesity).
>
> Julian Le Grand’s response to Michael Marmot at the HEN lecture raised
> an interesting question. He showed that relative poverty and gini
> inequality (which are key measure for Wilkinson’s inequality = ill
> health theory) counter-intuitively declined (or slowed) during the
> last 2 recessions as benefit and pension rates rose relative to
> average and top wages. This might suggests improving health in
> recession, subject to certain conditions, but also might question how
> useful relative measures are when thousands are losing jobs.
>
> A further question for the economists on this list (not me!) is
> whether income elasticity of demand – rising demand for healthcare (as
> distinct from need) increasing more quickly than income – is
> symmetrical, ie does demand fall back again as incomes decline and
> non-health consumption becomes a higher priority?
>
> From a healthcare system point of view the health need/ demand
> question maybe a relative side-show compared to the financial squeeze
> impact of recession/ depression.
>
> Joe Farrington-Douglas
>
> Senior Policy Manager
>
> DDI: 020 7074 3365
>
> Mobile: 07912 516461
>
> The NHS Confederation
>
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> *P** **Please consider the environment before printing this e-mail**.*
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> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> *From:* The Health Equity Network (HEN)
> [mailto:[log in to unmask]] *On Behalf Of *alex
> scott-samuel
> *Sent:* 07 January 2009 11:53
> *To:* [log in to unmask]
> *Subject:* Impact of recession on health
>
> interesting discussion on spirit of 1848 (US health left) group
>
> -------- Original Message --------
>
> *Subject: *
>
>
>
> Impact of recession on health
>
> *Date: *
>
>
>
> Wed, 07 Jan 2009 11:50:37 +0000
>
> *From: *
>
>
>
> alex scott-samuel <[log in to unmask]>
> <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
>
> *Reply-To: *
>
>
>
> [log in to unmask] <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
>
> *To: *
>
>
>
> alexss <[log in to unmask]>
> <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
>
> *Impact of recession on health *
> <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/spiritof1848/message/13033;_ylc=X3oDMTJxb2Vua2IwBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE1BGdycElkAzM3MTc0NQRncnBzcElkAzE3MDUwNjExNDYEbXNnSWQDMTMwMzMEc2VjA2Rtc2cEc2xrA3Ztc2cEc3RpbWUDMTIzMTI0MTY4MQ-->**
>
> *Posted by: "Larry Adelman" [log in to unmask]
> <mailto:[log in to unmask]>*
>
> *Mon Jan 5, 2009 3:01 pm (PST) *
>
> Can anyone kindly recommend articles or studies predicting the impact of
> the current economic meltdown (layoffs, foreclosures, etc.) on morbidity
> and mortality rates, either from a national or regional perspective?
>
> I've seen pieces on losing health insurance coverage, and cuts in health
> services, but nothing on the consequences of job loss, living with
> uncertainty, downward mobility, loss of hope, etc. save for an odd piece
> in the NY Times back in October called "Are Bad Times Healthy?" that
> emphasized how a recession gives parents more time to spend with their
> children, greater incentives to eat at home rather than out, and relief
> from the stress of overwork:
> www.nytimes
> <http://www.nytimes>.com/2008/10/07/health/07well.html?scp=72&sq=recession%20and%
> 20health&st=cse
>
> Many thanks,
>
> Larry
>
> Larry Adelman
>
> CALIFORNIA NEWSREEL
>
> 500 Third Street, #505
>
> San Francisco, CA 94107
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> [log in to unmask] <mailto:LA%40newsreel.org>
>
> www.newsreel <http://www.newsreel>.org <http://www.newsreel.org
> <http://www.newsreel.org>>
>
> www.unnaturalcauses <http://www.unnaturalcauses>.org
>
> *Re: Impact of recession on health *
> <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/spiritof1848/message/13034;_ylc=X3oDMTJxaXFnZ2NqBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE1BGdycElkAzM3MTc0NQRncnBzcElkAzE3MDUwNjExNDYEbXNnSWQDMTMwMzQEc2VjA2Rtc2cEc2xrA3Ztc2cEc3RpbWUDMTIzMTI0MTY4MQ-->**
>
> *Posted by: "David Spero RN" [log in to unmask]
> <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
> dsperorn <http://profiles.yahoo.com/dsperorn>*
>
> *Mon Jan 5, 2009 3:30 pm (PST) *
>
> Hi Larry,
> I don't think much has been written about this, and it would all be
> guesstimates really. Nobody knows, but in my worthless opinion, as
> Unnatural Causes showed so well, a lot will depend on whether the
> recession / depression increases or decreases inequality. But the
> effects on community may be equally important.
>
> If people's economic struggles continue to be seen as individual
> failings, then economic problems will tend to exacerbate health
> problems. If, OTOH, recession brings people (families, communities)
> together, there could be health benefits like the ones in the NYT
> article. Highly significant health benefits occurred in England during
> WW1 and WW2. Marmot and Wilkerson attribute this to the marked
> reduction in inequality during the war years - everyone was employed,
> taxes were very high, wages went up. There was also the feeling of
> "we're all in this together." Life expectancies (for noncombatants)
> soared.
>
> Could this happen in an economic downturn? It might depend on how we
> as a society respond. If we turn away from consumerism and toward
> community, if we tax the rich to pay for jobs programs, we might see
> benefits. If things go on as they are, health disparities and general
> health are likely to worsen.
>
> But, amazingly, the US also seems to have experienced gains in life
> expectancy and decreased death rates during the Bush Administration.
> (See this NCHS news release
> http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/PRESSROOM/08newsreleases/mortality2006.htm
> <http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/PRESSROOM/08newsreleases/mortality2006.htm>)
> I am at a loss to explain this, but it could mean the effect the Times
> found could be more robust than we know. It could be that, if people
> have to cut down on driving, cut down on meat, and do more things
> together, health will improve for quite a way down.
>
> What do you think?
> David
>
> *Re: Impact of recession on health *
> <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/spiritof1848/message/13035;_ylc=X3oDMTJxbmJrcTRmBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE1BGdycElkAzM3MTc0NQRncnBzcElkAzE3MDUwNjExNDYEbXNnSWQDMTMwMzUEc2VjA2Rtc2cEc2xrA3Ztc2cEc3RpbWUDMTIzMTI0MTY4MQ-->**
>
> *Posted by: "Merlin Chowkwanyun" [log in to unmask]
> <mailto:[log in to unmask]>*
>
> *Mon Jan 5, 2009 4:02 pm (PST) *
>
> Nicholas Freudenberg et. al had an AJPH piece a few years ago using a
> historical example (1975 NYC):
>
> http://www.ajph.org/cgi/content/abstract/96/3/424
> <http://www.ajph.org/cgi/content/abstract/96/3/424>
>
> The Impact of New York City.s 1975 Fiscal Crisis on the Tuberculosis,
> HIV,
> and Homicide Syndemic
>
> *Re: Impact of recession on health *
> <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/spiritof1848/message/13036;_ylc=X3oDMTJxYnB0ZG0zBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE1BGdycElkAzM3MTc0NQRncnBzcElkAzE3MDUwNjExNDYEbXNnSWQDMTMwMzYEc2VjA2Rtc2cEc2xrA3Ztc2cEc3RpbWUDMTIzMTI0MTY4MQ-->**
>
> *Posted by: "Robert Chernomas" [log in to unmask]
> <mailto:[log in to unmask]>*
>
> *Mon Jan 5, 2009 4:49 pm (PST) *
>
> There is an extensive literature under the heading (can be found in
> Google) "The Business Cycle and Mortality." Right-wing and Left-wing
> economists have argued over the stylized facts. The issue here is
> whether the current event will fit into a business cycle analysis or are
> we in the midst of something mush deeper and longer.
>
> Robert Chernomas
>
> *Re: Impact of recession on health *
> <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/spiritof1848/message/13037;_ylc=X3oDMTJxNTZpY2gxBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE1BGdycElkAzM3MTc0NQRncnBzcElkAzE3MDUwNjExNDYEbXNnSWQDMTMwMzcEc2VjA2Rtc2cEc2xrA3Ztc2cEc3RpbWUDMTIzMTI0MTY4MQ-->**
>
> *Posted by: "Sam Friedman" [log in to unmask]
> <mailto:[log in to unmask]>*
>
> *Mon Jan 5, 2009 5:24 pm (PST) *
>
> I was about to point to this literature.
> I would also point to examples of larger economic meltdowns, including
> the horrific one in Russia in the 1990s, as leading to very bad health
> outcomes. Also, that in many parts of Africa in the last 30 years.
> sam
>
> *Re: Impact of recession on health *
> <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/spiritof1848/message/13038;_ylc=X3oDMTJxaHBvcHU0BF9TAzk3MzU5NzE1BGdycElkAzM3MTc0NQRncnBzcElkAzE3MDUwNjExNDYEbXNnSWQDMTMwMzgEc2VjA2Rtc2cEc2xrA3Ztc2cEc3RpbWUDMTIzMTI0MTY4MQ-->**
>
> *Posted by: "Nicholas Freudenberg" [log in to unmask]
> <mailto:[log in to unmask]>*
>
> *Mon Jan 5, 2009 7:23 pm (PST) *
>
> A few weeks ago I posted a short article "Can the Economic Crisis
> Create New Opportunities to Advance Public Health?" at Common
> Dreams http://www.commondreams.org/view/2008/11/23-1.
> <http://www.commondreams.org/view/2008/11/23-1.> I ask whether
> a progressive public health movement could win new support for
> healthier policies during the economic crisis.
>
> Nick Freudenberg
>
>
>
>
> --
> ****************************************************************************
> Dr Alex Scott-Samuel
> EQUAL (Equity in Health Research and Development Unit)
> Division of Public Health
> University of Liverpool
> Whelan Building
> Quadrangle
> Liverpool
> L69 3GB
> UK
>
> Tel (+44)151-794-5569
> Fax (+44)151-794-5588
>
> http://pcwww.liv.ac.uk/~alexss <http://pcwww.liv.ac.uk/%7Ealexss>
> e-mail [log in to unmask] <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
> ****************************************************************************
>
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