"I honestly believe that Obama is committed to paying attention to the
environment and reducing emissions. But I don't think it means he is
going to get involved in Kyoto in the foreseeable future," he said.
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: [Nocarbontrade-l] Credit crisis a threat to Obama's carbon
Date: Thu, 6 Nov 2008 19:14:29 +0200
From: CEC Linkages <[log in to unmask]>
To: [log in to unmask], [log in to unmask]
Inquirer Money / Breaking News
http://business.inquirer.net/money/breakingnews/view/20081106-170627/Credit-crisis-a-threat-to-Obamas-carbon
*Credit crisis a threat to Obama's carbon
*
By David Fogarty
Reuters
Posted date: November 06, 2008
SINGAPORE--US President-elect Barack Obama's credentials may be green,
but gathering financial gloom means fixing the economy will take
priority on his agenda before dealing with national carbon trading and
clean-energy investment.
Analysts and carbon brokers believe Obama's support for an emissions
cap-and-trade scheme and plans to create millions of "green" industry
jobs send exactly the right signal for carbon trading and the burgeoning
renewable energy industry.
But don't expect miracles overnight, they said. Depleted government
coffers, rising unemployment and plunging profits across most industries
could prevent him from making sweeping changes in his crucial first year.
"We're guessing until he goes and checks his bank account and finds out
how much in debt he is," said Michael Hopkins, energy derivatives
manager at TFS Energy Asia-Pacific, referring to the hundreds of
billions of dollars pledged by the Bush administration to stabilize the
financial markets.
Pushing through a national emissions trading scheme won't be the top
item on Obama's hit-list, Hopkins said in Singapore.
"I think he has other issues to deal with before tackling the
environmental side of it," he added.
Obama wants to cut carbon dioxide emissions to 80 percent below 1990
levels by 2050, reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and require fuel
suppliers to cut carbon content of their fuel by 10 percent by 2020.
He also wants to invest $150 billion over 10 years in low-carbon energy
sources that will help create five million jobs, and double research and
development spending on biomass, solar and wind resources.
A plan to cut emissions, whether a cap-and-trade program, a carbon tax,
or new energy technology, was likely to raise costs for consumers, at
least in its first years, said Robert Stavins, director of Harvard
University's environmental economics program.
CAUTIOUS
That would push back enactment of a bill on cutting emissions
economy-wide from next year to 2010, or even later, Stavins told Reuters
recently.
But while it seems likely an Obama administration will usher in a
cap-and-trade system, it was crucial that he announce his intentions
sooner rather than later, market players said.
"I think once the United States indicates they will move to a global
carbon price over time there are fewer excuses for the rest of the
world," said Connell Burke, head of Australian power at Westpac's
commodities, carbon and energy group in Sydney.
For the moment, most analysts were wary.
Leading Australian environmental and sustainable energy analyst Mark
Diesendorf said he was cautious about Obama, drawing a parallel with the
Australian government's failure to meet some of its 2007 clean energy
election pledges.
"He has promised renewable energy $150 billion over 10 years -- I'd like
to see the first $15 billion funded in his first budget. One hopeful
sign is that during the election campaign Obama didn't surrender to all
the demands of the coal industry," said Diesendorf, of the Institute of
Environmental Studies at the University of New South Wales in Australia.
He said the Australian government was elected partly on its promises to
cut greenhouse gases and expand renewable energy. "However, in its first
budget in May 2008, it funded almost none of its promises to renewable
energy," he said.
Hopkins of TFS believed an Obama administration would not push the
United States to ratify the Kyoto Protocol immediately.
President George W. Bush pulled out of Kyoto in 2001, saying emissions
curbs would hurt US industry and that the pact unfairly excluded big
developing nations such as China and India from binding caps during its
first phase, which expires in 2012.
"I honestly believe that Obama is committed to paying attention to the
environment and reducing emissions. But I don't think it means he is
going to get involved in Kyoto in the foreseeable future," he said.
The carbon market is anxiously awaiting the outcome of talks at the end
of next year meant to agree on a broader pact to replace Kyoto. Getting
the United States to make substantial pledges on emissions and funding
for clean technology is regarded by many developing nations as crucial
to the talk's success.
Failure could derail a UN-backed carbon trading scheme worth billions a
year through investment in clean-energy projects in developing nations.
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