THE CAMBRIDGE STATISTICS DISCUSSION GROUP
PLEASE NOTE CHANGE OF MEETING DATE TO THAT ORIGINALLY LISTED
Tuesday 25th November 2008 7:15 for 7:45
Statistical Laboratory,
Centre for Mathematical Sciences,
Wilberforce Road
Cambridge
Understanding Uncertainty
David Spiegelhalter
Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk
Abstract:
I will talk about work we are doing in understanding and communicating
uncertainty, particularly with school audiences in mind. There will
be a lot of animations and examples, many involving horrible deaths,
but also some sport and gambling.
Speaker:
After obtaining his PhD in Mathematical Statistics from the University of
London in 1978, David spent a year at the University of California in
Berkeley and Nottingham University before joining the MRC
Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge in 1981. He currently divides his time
between the MRC and the Centre for Mathematical Sciences where he is
the first Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk. His
current research interests include Bayesian approaches to health technology
assessment and the BUGS software for implementing Markov Chain Monte Carlo
(MCMC) methods. In his 'Risk' job he is developing materials for the
public and schools to illustrate the value and possible limitations of
formal approaches to dealing with uncertainty.
Directions:
The main entrance is reached from Clarkson Road by going along the
footpath to the right of the Newton Institute, and turning left through the
gatehouse towards the main building (Pavilion A), which has a glass front and
a curved grassed roof. The main entrance is in the middle of the glass
front. Coffee before the talk will be in the common room in Pavilion D,
and the talk will be in Meeting Room 4 in Pavilion A. Free Parking is
available after 5pm on Clarkson and Wilberforce Roads.
Next Meetings (2009):
3rd February - Peter Lane (GSK) on 'Meta-analysis of clinical trials,
particularly of rare adverse events.'
5th March - Ben Marchant (Rothamsted Research).
2nd April - Phil Dawid (Statistical Laboratory).
7th May - Jenni Barclay (UEA).
Supper: Some members eat regularly in the University Centre before
each talk meeting in the downstairs bar at 6pm. Feel free to join them.
Subscriptions: of 1 pound are now due for attending the 2008-2009 session.
Secretary: Peter Watson, MRC Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit,
15 Chaucer Road, Cambridge CB2 7EF;telephone 01223 355294 Extension 801;
E-mail [log in to unmask]
Take a look at our website:
http://www.mrc-cbu.cam.ac.uk/~peterw/csdg.htm
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