Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK

 

An EPSRC three year PhD scholarship with an enhanced stipend is
available.

 

PhD Scholarship in Mathematical OR available in one of the two following
areas:

 

Human reliability modelling: Humans play an important role in most
technological and business systems, and it is becoming clear that they
often pose the biggest modelling challenge when trying to assess
reliability of a socio-technical organisation. Case studies in areas
such as transport, energy and banking show that many incidents have
their origins in the failure of human operators and managers. This
project aims to develop new stochastic dynamic models based on point
processes to capture the dynamic interactions of humans with
technological and business systems. Existing models range from fairly
simple decision tree based models to very complex simulation models.
Work in this area requires a good background in stochastic modelling,
but also an appreciation of the limitations of building models for human
behaviour.

 

Statistical analysis of Search And Rescue data: This project is an
extension of research done on performance measurement and evaluation
relating to Search And Rescue (SAR) operations coordinated by the
Maritime & Coastguard Agency (MCA). The first stage of that research
involved logistic regression analysis as well as stochastic frontier
analysis of a comparatively large set of panel data (in the form of
annual coastguard statistics) and identified the key role of a specific
set of aggregate variables. In the second stage, individual incident
analysis and expert judgement were combined in the form of a Bayesian
Belief Net (BBN). This BBN showed that each of the aggregate variables
identified earlier represents a somewhat crudely-measured 'proxy' for a
set of underlying factors. The main objectives of the present research
project are: (1) to calibrate further the conditional probabilities
underlying the BBN, based on appropriate statistical analysis of the
latest available incident data and further interviews with expert staff
from the MCA; and (2) to investigate how the BBN can be further
developed into a practical framework for risk analysis as well as a
system to support decision making at the strategic level. Work in this
area requires a good background in stochastic modelling, but also an
appreciation of how the resulting models can be used to support
managerial decision making in practice.

 

The department of Management Science is an energetic research active
department with interests that cover a wide spectrum of
interdisciplinary applied operational research. Information on the
department can be found at http://www.managementscience.org
<http://www.managementscience.org>

 

Applicants should be UK residents with a 1st or upper 2nd class degree
in a quantitative subject area. A masters degree in Operational
Research / Management Science/Statistics would be an advantage, but is
not essential.

 

If you would like to discuss any aspect of this, please contact either:
 
Prof Tim Bedford ([log in to unmask]) or Dr John Quigley
([log in to unmask])
 
To apply for the position, please send your CV and a covering letter
explaining why you are interested this opportunity, by Friday 22nd
August 2008 to:
 
 
Dr John Quigley
Department of Management Science
University of Strathclyde
40 George Street
Glasgow UK
G1 1QE
(tel) +44 141 548 3152
(fax) +44 141 552 6686