Hello,
I'm currently working on a study looking at perceptions of risk. I would
like to work out the maximal chance of getting at least one side effect of
a hypothetical drug, given a known risk of four potential side effets.
These are;
Hot flushes 1 in 48 chance (0.02083)
Cataracts 3 in 100 chance (0.03)
Deep vein thrombosis 2 in 1,000 chance (0.002)
Pulmonary embolism 6 in 10,000 chance (0.0006)
I thought the way to do it would be as follows;
p (one or more side effets0 = 1 - p(no side effects)
= 1 - [p(no hot flushes) * p(no cataract) * p(no DVT) * p(no PE)]
= 1 - [(1-0.02083) * (1 - 0.03) * (1-0.002) * (1-0.0006)]
= 1 - [0.97917 * 0.97 * 0.998 * 0.9994]
= 1 - 0.947326573
= 0.05267
Does this sound correct?
Thanks in advance,
Brian
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