**Please note a change to the previously advertised programme - Jon Deeks has kindly agreed to speak in place of Tim Cole who is unfortunately no longer able to join us due to illness
All Welcome
PRIMARY HEALTH CARE STUDY GROUP meeting
Wednesday 27th February 2008
Royal Statistical Society, Errol St, London
2-5pm
(directions http://www.rss.org.uk/about/direction.html)
No pre-registration is necessary
Monitoring chronic conditions in primary care
2pm PAUL GLASZIOU (Oxford University)
Monitoring in chronic disease: ill-charted waters?
Managing long term illness is an important and costly element of health care, and accounts for 80% of GP consultations. Monitoring forms a major part of this management, however it has been neglected as an area for research. For example, despite a lack of evidence of effectiveness of self-monitoring in Type 2 diabetes, the costs of monitoring strips alone in 2002 in the UK was £118 Million, larger than the expenditure on oral medications for diabetes. Despite the investment in monitoring, in many patients chronic disease is poorly controlled. We suggest that optimal monitoring should be considered in five phases: (1) pre-treatment, (2) initial titration, (3) maintenance, (4) re-establish control, and (5) cessation.
2.40pm JON DEEKS (University of Birmingham)
Developing diagnostic scoring systems for signs and symptoms
The diagnostic power of signs and symptoms is often harnessed by producing a scoring system or predictive model. The simplest model based on Bayesian updating (so-called naïve Bayes) is often rejected in favor of logistic regression models which adjust for the non-independence of the diagnostic features. However, scoring systems produced from logistic coefficients cannot be interpreted directly as probabilities. This talk will review and illustrate three underused adaptations to logistic models published between 1982 and 1992 which combine adjustment with a Bayesian updating structure to produce scoring systems more suited for clinical application.
3.20pm Tea
3.45pm Discussion in groups
4.30pm Rounding up and conclusion
5pm Close
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