The keyword needed is 'judgmental forecasting', A recent survey article is
Lawrence, M et al, "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the
last 25 years£, International Journal of Forecasting, 2006, and also the
Forecasting principles, Armstrong, J.S. ed. 2001. Also the associated web
site.
These references and the references they cite answer this query pretty
completely.
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