...If he cannot produce proof of Russian involvement, many will feel
that he has cried wolf, using his country's geopolitical
significance for narrow domestic advantage...
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10113464
The Economist
November 10-16, 2007
Georgia's protests
Nov 8th 2007 | TBILISI
From The Economist print edition
The president tries to face down protests from the opposition
IT WAS exactly four years ago that Mikheil Saakashvili, then a youthful
firebrand leader of the opposition to President Eduard Shevardnadze,
brought his supporters out into the streets of Tbilisi. The protesters
were complaining that Mr Shevardnadze had staged and won a rigged
parliamentary election. The demonstrations were peaceful but, because
they went on day after day, also intimidating. Within days, Georgia's
"rose revolution" had driven Mr Shevardnadze out of power and installed
Mr Saakashvili in his place.
AP While we were marching through Georgia
Four years on it is Mr Saakashvili who has been confronted by the
biggest protests since the rose revolution. The most recent ones, in
central Tbilisi and in front of the parliament building, have attracted
crowds at least 50,000 strong. The protesters object to Mr Saakashvili's
forceful, hands-on style, complain that the benefits of the boom (annual
GDP growth is close to 10%) have been too narrowly shared, and demand
fresh elections.
Yet unlike Mr Shevardnadze four years ago, Mr Saakashvili seems
determined to hang on. He claims the demonstrations are part of a
Kremlin-backed putsch against him. "High-ranking officials in Russian
special services are behind this," he said, adding that several Russian
diplomats would be expelled. Georgia's ambassador to Moscow has been
recalled.
Certainly Russia has systematically provoked Georgia, with trade and
energy sanctions, harassment of Georgian migrants in Russia, and-most
recently-mysterious air raids. But Mr Saakashvili's response will do
little to help his country's reputation as a shop window for the West in
the former Soviet Union.
On November 7th police forcefully dispersed the protesters, using
tear-gas and water cannon. Scores of people were reported injured. Among
those beaten was Georgia's human-rights ombudsman, Sozar Subari. The
government then declared a 15-day state of emergency. Riot police
stormed the main opposition television station, Imedi, and took it off
the air.
Countries that normally support Georgia against Russian bullying are
aghast. Many have been worried privately for some time about cronyism in
Mr Saakashvili's inner circle. Last month the secretary-general of NATO,
Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, underlined the need for greater political
transparency and a stricter rule of law if Georgia wants to progress
towards membership. Outsiders worry that state influence on the media is
too strong. Many think that the government mishandled a spectacular
bust-up last month with the firebrand former defence minister, Irakli
Okruashvili, now in exile.
Yet the opposition's stance can sound hysterical and sometimes
outlandish (hanging the president in effigy and demanding the
restoration of the monarchy after a 200-year interregnum). Given the
shambles that Mr Saakashvili took over in 2003, the obstacles he has
faced and the progress he has made, criticisms of him may seem harsh.
The opposition's motives are open to question too. Badri
Patarkatsishvili, a tycoon who fled from Russia, openly bankrolls some
of the protesters, no doubt for admirable reasons. That raises questions
about the influence of big money in poor countries' politics. An adviser
to Mr Saakashvili says those backing the opposition want Georgia to be a
weak state that big business can manipulate.
Western countries will be urging Mr Saakashvili to return political life
to normal as soon as possible. If he cannot produce proof of Russian
involvement, many will feel that he has cried wolf, using his country's
geopolitical significance for narrow domestic advantage. Ketevan
Tsikhelashvili, a Tbilisi-based analyst, comments that Mr Saakashvili
and his government have survived, but adds that "in the longer term I
cannot say his perspectives look very good." At the very least this
week's events have shown how disillusioned many Georgians now are with
Mr Saakashvili's commitment to the rose revolution's ideals: freedom,
legality and international respectability.
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