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EAST-WEST-RESEARCH  September 2007

EAST-WEST-RESEARCH September 2007

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Subject:

"Now they have a buoyant American sensibility": American strategists shape Ukraine's democracy (NYT)

From:

"Serguei Alex. Oushakine" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Serguei Alex. Oushakine

Date:

Sun, 30 Sep 2007 11:28:15 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (153 lines)

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/30/world/europe/30ukraine.html?_r=1&hp=&oref=
slogin&pagewanted=print

...The changes that the American consultants bring to a relatively
unsophisticated political culture can be seen in Mr. Yanukovich's television
commercials. The party's advertisements used to feature Mr. Yanukovich
lecturing to the camera, in Communist-era newscast style. Now they have a
buoyant American sensibility, with Mr. Yanukovich strolling through sunny
neighborhoods, surrounded by smiling Ukrainians of all ages...


September 30, 2007
Ukraine Prime Minister Reinvents Himself
By CLIFFORD J. LEVY

KIEV, Ukraine, Sept. 29 - Once a divisive figure reviled by some here as a
shady reactionary and Kremlin pawn, Prime Minister Viktor F. Yanukovich has
turned into arguably the nation's most popular politician.

On the eve of critical parliamentary elections, Mr. Yanukovich now calls
himself an anticorruption reformer who wants to move Ukraine closer to the
West.

It is a remarkable transformation for a man who was often portrayed as the
archvillain in the events surrounding this country's Orange Revolution in
2004, beginning with the dioxin poisoning of his rival for president, Viktor
A. Yushchenko, a mystery that has never been solved.

But Mr. Yanukovich has not done it all on his own. From an anonymous office
off Kiev's main square, a seasoned American political strategist who was
once a senior aide in Senator Bob Dole's Republican presidential campaign
has labored for months on a Yanukovich makeover.

Though the strategist, Paul J. Manafort, has sought to remain behind the
scenes, his handiwork has been evident in Mr. Yanukovich's tightly organized
campaign events, in his pointed speeches and in how he has presented himself
to the world.

Mr. Manafort is by no means the only well-known American strategist lured to
Kiev by the prospect of sizable fees and the chance to shape the course of a
young and tumultuous democracy.

President Yushchenko's party, Our Ukraine, has received advice from the firm
run by Bill Clinton's pollster, Stan Greenberg; from Stephen E. Schmidt,
campaign manager for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California; and from Neil
Newhouse, a pollster who worked for Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential
candidate, when he was Massachusetts governor.

Mr. Manafort's goal is to change people's opinions in advance of this
Sunday's voting, many of whom have long memories of Ukraine's stormy 2004
presidential election.

Mr. Yushchenko suffered scarring on his face from the dioxin poisoning, but
recovered enough to continue the 2004 campaign. He then lost to Mr.
Yanukovich in balloting that was denounced as fraudulent by Western
observers. Protests forced another election, which was won by Mr.
Yushchenko.

Mr. Yanukovich seemed discredited, his political career in shambles. But
last year, he made a startling comeback in parliamentary elections, aided in
part by Mr. Manafort.

Mr. Yanukovich's return came at Mr. Yushchenko's expense. Once the hero of
the Orange Revolution, Mr. Yushchenko has suffered a steep decline in
popularity as the country has lurched through political crises since 2004.

His party is third in polls, after Mr. Yanukovich's, the Party of Regions,
and that of the former prime minister, Yulia V. Tymoshenko.

Prime Minister Yanukovich still has the bulk of a retired linebacker, but he
has largely shed the coarse mannerisms that he picked up as an ex-convict
turned party boss in the political free-for-all after the Soviet Union's
demise.

On the stump this week, Mr. Yanukovich has repeatedly declared that he is
the only politician who can bring stability to a nation weary of political
turmoil.

"I understand your dreams," he told supporters at a rally, before echoing a
line from former President Bill Clinton. "I feel your pain, and I share in
your desire to make Ukraine a land of opportunity."

He added, "I want you to know who I am, not who my opponents try to say that
I am."

Even Mr. Yanukovich's adversaries acknowledge his success at recasting his
image, though they say he remains at heart a Soviet-style autocrat. And they
contend that he has recently shown flashes of his old ways, recklessly
accusing other parties of planning to commit fraud.

The changes that the American consultants bring to a relatively
unsophisticated political culture can be seen in Mr. Yanukovich's television
commercials. The party's advertisements used to feature Mr. Yanukovich
lecturing to the camera, in Communist-era newscast style. Now they have a
buoyant American sensibility, with Mr. Yanukovich strolling through sunny
neighborhoods, surrounded by smiling Ukrainians of all ages.

Both the Yanukovich and Yushchenko camps, fearful of accusations of meddling
by the United States, have sought to keep the American consultants out of
the public eye, often asking them to sign confidentiality agreements. Most
of the consultants would not comment or did not respond to messages.

Mr. Manafort, whose partner, Rick Davis, manages the presidential campaign
of Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, said Thursday that he would
not discuss his advice to Mr. Yanukovich or how much he is being paid. But
Mr. Manafort said he believed that the prime minister was an outstanding
leader who had been badly misunderstood.

"The West has not been willing to move beyond the cold war mentality and to
see this man and the outreach that he has extended," said Mr. Manafort, 58,
who favors monogrammed dress shirts and has the looks of a network
anchorman. He has worked for candidates around the world, including some,
like the former Philippine president Ferdinand E. Marcos, with unsavory
reputations.

All three political parties have struggled to engage a public that has grown
jaded and apathetic after three years of political strife, caused in part by
the constitutional structure of the government. The president and whoever
has been prime minister have repeatedly fought over who makes powerful
appointments and other important decisions.

What is more, election fatigue has set in, and geographic divides remain.
Mr. Yanukovich's base is in the Russian-speaking east of the country, while
Mr. Yushchenko and Ms. Tymoshenko have more support in the
Ukrainian-speaking west.

Mr. Yanukovich was introduced to Mr. Manafort by Rinat Akhmetov, a
Yanukovich supporter and billionaire industrialist who is Ukraine's richest
man. Mr. Manafort was then advising Mr. Akhmetov on improving the image of
his companies.

Borys V. Kolesnikov, Mr. Yanukovich's campaign manager, said the party hired
Mr. Manafort after identifying organizational and other problems in the 2004
elections, in which it was advised by Russian strategists.

"Americans for a long time have conducted elections, for a long time," Mr.
Kolesnikov said.

To undercut Mr. Yanukovich's more polished campaign, his opponents have
charged that oligarchs like Mr. Akhmetov are simply buying a better
candidate.

"They are just packaging him in a new cover and educating him in some
techniques to use," said Hryhoriy Nemyria, a Tymoshenko adviser. "It's the
same Soviet and post-Soviet political culture."

Mr. Manafort said such criticism was unfair, and he emphasized that his
vision for Ukraine extended far beyond Sunday.

"I am not here just for the election," he said. "I am trying to play a
constructive role in developing a democracy. I am helping to build a
political party."

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