Thanks for that Jo. The information sort of reiterates the idea of a
significant lag between the forcing event and subsequent CO2 rises without
really contextualising that in respect of current warming. Perhaps I am
barking up the wrong tree in thinking of 20th century CO2 emissions as a
forcing event equivalent to forcing events which have created warming in
Earth's past. As Jack said in his reply, I'd be a damn fool to ignore the
evidence of my own senses which shows me temperature rises far more rapid
than anything I was anticipating on the back of the IPCC reports. So,
whatever the reasons for lags between forcing events and temperature
increases in previous warming episodes, it seems the idea of a lag (over and
above the established one of CO2 being active in the atmosphere for 40 years
after its initial release) is not applicable to the current crisis. I just
haven't established a brief explanation of why.
Chris
----- Original Message -----
From: "jo abbess" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Friday, June 01, 2007 11:11 PM
Subject: Re: Martin Durkin debate on Radio Scotland - The Great Global
Warming Swindle
hi chris and CRISIS,
the short answer is here :-
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/dn11659
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/04/the-lag-between-temp-and-co2/
it seems that, during cyclic periods of earth warming,
the carbon cycle was disturbed, which caused higher
net emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere,
which caused further warming. a positive feedback.
more discussion on the swindle film :-
http://portal.campaigncc.org/node/1820
http://climatedenial.org/2007/03/09/the-great-channel-four-swindle/
http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/news.asp?id=6089
http://www.jri.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=137&Itemid=83
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Global_Warming_Swindle
as someone has poetically pointed out "durkin rhymes with gherkin".
no offence, but really...
jo.
+44 77 17 22 13 96
http://www.workface.org
http://groups.google.co.uk/group/climate-energy
>From: Chris <[log in to unmask]>
>Reply-To: Chris <[log in to unmask]>
>To: [log in to unmask]
>Subject: Re: Martin Durkin debate on Radio Scotland - The Great Global
>Warming Swindle
>Date: Fri, 1 Jun 2007 16:52:36 +0100
>
>Hi Alastair and everyone else
>
>I wondered if anyone could help with a question that has arisen from the
>Global Warming Swindle debate (well, arisen for me at least, perhaps it is
>blindingly obvious to everyone else).
>
>Previously, CO2 rises have followed on from temperature rises, not the
>converse. The GGWS I think identifies an 800 year lag between temperature
>rises and consequent CO2 increases. Ok, so we understand this as forcing
>mechanisms (changes in angle of earth's axis, volcanic activity etc)
>initiating temperature rises which result in releases of CO2 into the
>atmosphere which then accelerate the process. So far so simple. And now we
>understand that anthropogenic CO2 releases are the current forcing
>mechanism for runaway climate change. So far so scary - there is no steady
>increases in temperature, climate change by definition is chaotic and
>runaway and all we are seeing at the moment is a priming of the pump - the
>real temperature increases are yet to occur, but their occurrence is
>inevitable.
>
>But isn't it true to say, on the basis of previous periods of climate
>change, that we are 800 years or so from that runaway climate change
>kicking in? If so, this contradicts the 'we only have 10 years left to act'
>message dominating discourse at the moment.
>
>Chris
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Alastair McIntosh
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Sent: Friday, June 01, 2007 2:35 PM
> Subject: Martin Durkin debate on Radio Scotland - The Great Global
> Warming Swindle
>
>
> Folks ...
>
> BBC Radio Scotland's Lesley Riddoch today ran her 45 minute show on a
> debate over Martin Durkin's film, "The Great Global Warming Swindle".
> Durkin is interviewed and describes the CO2 theory of global warming as "a
> stupid quack theory." Here is the link to listen to it, though at the time
> when I wrote this the "listen again" link says 25 May, though the audio
> file has been updated to 1st June. The programme should remain available
> online for one week.
>
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/scotland/radioscotland/programmes/riddochquestions
>
> The programme also has Chris Merchant, Lecturer in Earth Observation at
> Edinburgh University's School of Geosciences, challenging the movie's
> scientific advisor on why the key evidential graph was truncated at 1980,
> when the relationship it purported to show broke down after that - Chris's
> lecture on this is available on YouTube.
>
> Alastair McIntosh,
>
> Centre for Human Ecology.
>
>
>
> Question the Global Warming Swindle film-maker in Edinburgh OB
>
> One of Britain's foremost critics of Global Warming Theory will meet his
> Green opponents on Riddoch Questions at a live outside broadcast to be
> held at the Gardening Scotland event at Ingliston on June 1st.
>
> Martin Livermore is the scientific advisor to the controversial film,
> The Global Warming Swindle shown on C4 in March. He'll be facing some
> pointed questioning from green lobbyist Bob Ward - who's asked Ofcom to
> halt DVD distribution because of what he claims are 'serious errors'
> Livermore and the documentary makers will not remove. That of course only
> helps prove the carbon sceptics contention that they are being bullied out
> of free speech about Global Warming Theory. They claim scientists have
> received death threats for questioning the perceived wisdom.
>
> We will be playing an interview with the elusive Global Warming Swindle
> film-maker Martin Durkin in which he claims
>
> a.. the sun is to blame for rising temperatures - not man-made
> carbon-emitting behaviour
> b.. levels of CO2 have historically risen AFTER temperature changes in
> history, not before
> c.. Al Gore's film has more mistakes than his
> d.. the scientific community have tried to freeze out ANY criticism of
> the carbon reduction industry they've created.
> He does admit one mistake - about the amount of CO2 emitted by
> volcanoes. But defies his critics to prove global warming theory any more
> thoroughly. Are the carbon sceptics leading public opinion up a dangerous
> 'do nothing' cul-de-sac? Or does their criticism of Global Warming theory
> hold water?
>
>
> Riddoch Questions is a live 45 minute exchange between Sony award
> winning broadcaster Lesley Riddoch and the person making the biggest
> headlines of the week - in politics, arts or sports. RQs gives them a
> chance to answer critics,face the music and explain how they've been
> misunderstood. Each guest gets to "call a friend" - and callers, emailers
> and texters get to put questions and hear Lesley ensure they get answers.
> RQs is a regular weekly forum for topical, searching, robust debate,
> focussing each week on just one top story and one top newsmaker.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Alastair.
>
> **************************************************************
> * Website: www.AlastairMcIntosh.com
> *
> * Email: [log in to unmask]
> *
> * Alastair McIntosh
> * 26 Luss Road
> * Drumoyne
> * Glasgow
> * Scotland
> * Tel: +44 (0)141 445 8750
> *
> * Love and Revolution - collected poetry - is now
> * published by Luath Press, £7.99
> * - see www.alastairmcintosh.com/loveandrevolution.htm
> *
> * Soil and Soul: People versus Corporate Power
> * is now in paperback at £8.99 (also in French translation)
> * - see www.AlastairMcIntosh.com/soilandsoul.htm
> *~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>
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