Apparently , because of " signs that concerns about global global 
warming have begun to change the world's fuel mix" tey have reduced last 
years estimate by two and a half percent ! - George

CO2 output to rise 59% by '30: US
23 May, 2007 l 0014 hrs I REUTERS

NEW YORK: Global emissions of the main gas scientists link to global 
warming will rise 59% from 2004 to 2030, with much of the growth coming 
from coal burning in developing countries like China, the US government 
forecast on Monday.

Greenhouse emission forecasts will be watched widely in coming months 
ahead of a UN conference in Indonesia late this year in which world 
governments will discuss whether the Kyoto Protocol on global warming 
can be extended.

The US, the world's top carbon dioxide emitter, in 2001 pulled out of 
the pact that requires developing countries to cut emissions by an 
average of 5% below 1990 levels by 2012. China, the world's 
second-largest emitter, was not required, as a developing country, to 
limit emissions in the first round of the international agreement.

Global carbon dioxide emissions will hit 42.88 billion tonnes in 2030, 
up from 26.9 billion tonnes in 2004, and 21.2 billion in 1990, the US 
Energy Information Administration said in its annual International 
Energy Outlook.

The forecast was down slightly from last year's prediction of 43.7 
billion tonnes by 2030 on signs that concerns about global global 
warming have begun to change the world's fuel mix.

The trim in expected emissions did not represent the type of deep cuts 
of about 50% below 1990 levels in CO2 and other heat-trapping gases that 
scientists say will be necessary to cut risks of deadly storms, heat 
waves, droughts and floods that climate change could bring.

The percentage of total CO2 emissions from plants that burn coal, the 
dirtiest fossil fuel, will rise from 39% in 2004 to 43% by 2030.

By 2010, CO2 output in rapidly growing China, which is rapidly building 
coal plants and highways, will edge out emissions from the United 
States, by 6.49 billion tonnes to 6.21 billion tonnes, the EIA said. 
That confirmed a report this spring from the Paris-based International 
Energy Agency that said China would overtake the United States as the 
world's biggest CO2 emitter either this year or next.

By 2030 Chinese emissions will be 11.2 billion tonnes annually, while US 
output will be 8.0 billion tonnes, the EIA said.

Chinese officials point to country's relatively low per-capita emission 
of greenhouse gases, saying that historically, the main culprits of the 
emissions buildup in the atmosphere are developed nations, which have no 
right to deny economic growth to others.

In 2003, US individuals were far bigger emitters, at 20 tonnes per 
capita against China's 3.2 tonnes per capita and a world average of 3.7, 
according to the UN. Many environmentalists say China is working hard to 
cut emissions.


-- 
George Marshall,
Director of Projects,
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