Dear Friends,

I normally read rather than write in this forum.  As an academic, I do 
research into crisis and disaster management. Hence I tend to study 
the effects of things, rather than the causes.  Usually I study fires, 
explosions, floods and crashes and try to think of contingency plans.  

Cause, while always interesting, is at best a distraction from my real 
work which is to help those that must respond or pick up the pieces.  
Similarly, whether heatwaves and warming (or cooling) is caused by 
our actions or by some 'natural' (whatever that means) causes will 
have little consequence when it comes to responding to the effects.  

We live in an increasingly interconnected world socially, 
economically and politically.  We also live in a more crowded world 
than ever before.  Hence the effects of changes tend to have more 
far reaching effects more quickly.

For example compare the kill rate of the tsunami two years ago with 
that after the earthquake in Java in 1883.  The tsunami following 
Krakatoa was reported to be 4 times the physical hight of the recent 
one but only killed about 3000 people in comparison to the recent 
one, nearer to 1 million.  One could also apply the same Malthusian 
logic to other threats such as Bird Flu.  

I do agree with Chris's comments this morning that to argue about 
causes is at best just wasting time and is most certainly part of the 
problem not the solution.  There has been a big debate about risk 
perception and irrationality in psychology preceeding Becks work 
and most of this suggests that we tend to worry about exotic (low 
likleyhood) risks and ignore more mundane (but likely) ones.  Hence 
we smoke, brake speed limits and over eat, despite the fact that half 
of us will die from cancer, heart diseases accidents or a combination 
of these factors.  And there are still those that claim there is no link 
between smoking and cancer. 

Similarly, the danger with an endless debate about the cause of 
climate change is that it becomes perceived as mundane and hence 
the gaze of focus moves away from the fact that it is happening to 
what might or might not be causing this to happen.  It is time to start 
making preparations to live with the consequences of climate 
change which already appears to be on us.  The situation is very 
serious and the consequences are probably the most extreme 
human kind may have to deal with at least for a few millenia.  

I am just not sure how we can trust the corrupt people who run our 
political institutions to give us any kind of lead in this.  Listening to 
Tony Blair or Gordon Brown's rhetoric on global warming is like 
buying a cancer relief sticker from a man smoking a fag!  

Trust I have not taken up too much of your friday
        
best wishes

Edward




Edward P. Borodzicz
Professor of Risk and Crisis Management
Portsmouth Business School
Richmond Building, Portland Street,
Portsmouth, Hants.
PO1 3DE

Tel. 02392 844256
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