It's a UN release but sorry- I don't have the full reference- easily found though, and it is a major 
article George

EAST AND HORN OF AFRICA: Environmental health key to decreasing incidence
of drought

[This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations]


NAIROBI, 14 March (IRIN) - More frequent and more severe droughts are
likely to blight the Horn of Africa as global warming increases and
commercial activities continue to destroy the environment's ability to
bounce back from dry spells, leading environmental experts have cautioned.

Deforestation and commercial exploitation of wetlands have brought about
climate change and decreased rainfall on a massive scale across eastern
Africa, and if these harmful practices continue, millions of people could
face starvation annually. Global warming has exacerbated the situation:
According to a March 2006 report from the University of Cape Town, global
warming could cause 25 percent drop in surface water across Africa by the
end of the century.

"Drought is a natural climatic phenomenon, but what has dramatically
changed in recent decades is the ability of nature to supply essential
services like water and moisture during hard times," said Klaus Toepfer,
director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). "This is
because so much of nature's water and rain-supplying services have been
damaged, destroyed or cleared."

Disappearing forests

Between 2000 and 2003, Kenya lost more than 7,000 hectares of forest cover,
drastically reducing the environment's natural moisture production and
leading to the current dry spell. Deforestation has also caused soil
erosion, which in turn has caused a build-up of silt at the Masinga dam,
100 km northwest of Nairobi, which provides half of Kenya's electricity.
Masinga was built 25 years ago with a capacity of 1,400 million cu.m. but
has since lost an estimated 20 percent of its volume - and thus its output
- to siltation, reported power firm Kengen. Clearing out the silt would
require 1,000 large trucks to work nonstop for six years, it is estimated.

Wanton destruction of woodlands across southern Somalia to feed an
unregulated international export trade in charcoal is leaving whole
districts empty of vegetation. Abdulkadir Shirwa, an agronomist with the
USAID-funded Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), said a lack
of central government made it impossible to calculate the number of trees
being cut down or the volumes exported, mostly to the Gulf states, where a
bag that would cost US $3 to $4 in Mogadishu fetches up to $10. Acacia
forests between Brava and Kismayo are being decimated to feed the trade,
which flourished after a ban introduced under former ruler Mohamed Siad
Barre fell when his regime was overthrown, Shirwa said. In Ethiopia, as
across the Horn of Africa, poverty drives subsistence farmers to chop wood
where they find it.

The environmental impact of regional deforestation has increased the
frequency of drought in eastern Africa. Whereas drought used to hit the
region once every five to seven years, these conditions now occur more
often: The last dry spell happened between 2001 and 2002; prior droughts
occurred in 1999, 1997, 1992 and 1987.  It is the cumulative effect of
successive droughts that prevents the environment from bouncing back and
erodes communities' coping mechanisms.

Dry rivers, shrinking lakes

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society estimated that
rainfall across the Horn of Africa between March and May 2006 was likely to
be between 40 percent and 50 percent below normal. Results from a
University of Cape Town study published in March 2006 have shown that even
a relatively small drop in rainfall can have a powerful effect on the
amount of precipitation that ends up in rivers and lakes. According to the
study, even a 10 percent drop in rain in a marginal, semi-arid area like
much of the Horn of Africa's lowlands can lead to rivers running dry, lakes
shrinking and wetlands withering.

The scientists, Maarten de Wit and Jacek Stankiewicz, used climate-change
models to predict rainfall patterns across Africa over the next 100 years
and what effect those changes would have on the amount of water in the
continent's rivers. They found that in three-quarters of the countries in
Africa, which normally receive between 400 mm and 1,000 mm of rain a year,
almost none of the water reached rivers and lakes if the precipitation
level dropped below 400 mm. "Using predicted precipitation changes, we
calculate that the decrease in perennial drainage will significantly affect
present surface water access across 25 percent of Africa by the end of this
century," the researchers concluded.

The poor performance across eastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and southwest
Somalia of the 2005 March to May seasonal rains and the failure of the
October-December rainy season have resulted in rainfall totals for the year
2005 that are only 20 percent to 50 percent of the long term mean, FEWS NET
reported in January. In Mandera, 550 miles north of Nairobi, no measurable
rain fell in 2005, according to the Kenyan Meteorological Department. In
Wajir, 150 miles southwest of Mandera, less than 10 percent of the expected
annual 300 mm fell in 2005.

Across the Lake Victoria Basin, including eastern Uganda, northwestern
Tanzania and far eastern Rwanda, rainfall since 1 October 2005 has totalled
only 100 mm to 250 mm. This is only 40 percent to 60 percent of normal and
has contributed to the lowest water levels recorded on Lake Victoria since
1951. Some passenger ships failed to find docking stations due to the
shallow water levels, down by 50 mm to 200 mm.

Silver lining?

The researchers also found, however, that the situation may improve.
Climate- change models suggested rainfall across parts of East Africa could
increase in the coming century, which would have the effect of
exponentially increasing water reserves. However, that prediction is only
likely to come true if vital rainmaking machinery is preserved by slowing
the rate of deforestation.

Christian Lambrechts, an expert in UNEP's Division of Early Warning and
Assessment, debunked the commonly held assumption that most rainfall comes
from clouds formed above oceans, which then dump their moisture when they
pass over high ground inland. "Globally, something like 62 percent of
precipitation occurs over land as a result of evapo-transpiration from
lakes and wetlands and dense vegetation, in particular forests pumping
water held in the soils into the air," he said. "In comparison, only around
38 percent of precipitation is generated over oceans and seas. It is
impossible to do anything about precipitation from oceans and seas, but
there is a lot we can do about the land. Trees not only assist the land in
absorbing water when it rains, helping to feed rivers and lakes, wetland
and underground aquifers. But they also act as natural pumps, bringing
moisture from around two metres below into the air. Here it can fall back
as showers and rainfall."

Reforms must be put in place now to stop the cycle of drought and famine,
Toepfer said. National governments, under international pressure if
necessary, should introduce workable policies to halt deforestation, to
repair damage to forest and wetland areas and to stop wasteful use of
scarce resources. Micro-credit schemes can bolster the ability of a
subsistence farmer to weather tough times, and drought-proof crop strains
should be introduced in areas that are likely to be prone to repeated dry
spells. Finally, investment in infrastructure, like roads and
electrification regionally, would allow farmers to increase their wealth
and lift themselves out of poverty and cut their dependence on wood for
charcoal and heat.

"Without these actions, countries currently again facing water shortages
and power rationing will continue to do so into the future, with all the
misery and economic damage this entails," Toepfer said.
[ENDS]


-- 

George Marshall
Co-Executive Director
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Telephone 01865 727 911 
Mobile 0795 150 4549 
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Web: www.COINet.org.uk 

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