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Russia in Global Affairs  * 2006-03-31RGE-No. 001
 
CONTENTS

After the Empire
	
Fyodor Lukyanov
	5

EMPIRE'S DESTINY

The Fruits of a Hundred Years Revolution
	Sergei Dubinin
	8
Chaos, as a general rule, occurs in the most authoritarian overcentralized
states, in which the breakdown of central authority causes the collapse of
local authority. This pattern is observed in the early 20th century both in
the Russian and Chinese Empires; the juggernaut of state administration
weakens and literally falls to pieces.
	
Russia: A Special Imperial Way?
	Alexei Arbatov 22
It is a question of paramount historical and contemporary political
importance whether a military empire is a normal form of existence for
Russia. Or, on the contrary, has such a model finally become obsolete after
twice bringing this great country to collapse?

Portugal: In Pursuit of Bygone Caravels
	Antonio Ramalho Eanes 40
The Portuguese Empire emerged as a means of asserting national will and
occupied an important place in the minds of the people. Longing for the
gardens of a mythological Eden suppressed their ability to tackle problems
bravely and wittingly, or to make use of new opportunities.
	
Harvesting New Peoples
	Sergei Gradirovsky 50
Throughout Russia's history, its primary goal and geopolitical strategy has
been centered around the idea of "gathering together lands." The historic
colonizing potential of the Russian nation had a solid backing in the form
of its birthrates. Now Russia should focus on the change of its geopolitical
strategy to "gathering together peoples."
	
Xenophobia: Past and Present
	Lev Gudkov 58
The disintegration of the Soviet Union undermined the traditional
self-identity and introduced primitive (archaic) perceptions and mechanisms
of ethnic solidarity based on separation and alienation.
	

 

SOVIET LEGACY

Unrecognized Geopolitics
	Sergei Markedonov 68
The problem of unrecognized states is often reduced to the formal, legal
format. But unrecognized states as a phenomenon cannot be studied and
understood exclusively in terms of formal jurisprudence. The very creation
of those entities are facts of emotional, symbolic, social and cultural
nature.
	

 The North Caucasus and the Future of Russian Statehood
	Vladimir Degoyev, Rustam Ibragimov 80
The alienation of the North Caucasus and the subsequent reshaping of borders
would mean that a country named Russia in its present form would cease to
exist. This tough prognosis of the foreseeable future will occur as
inevitably as a cyclical natural phenomenon if we allow the current
tendencies to develop according to their natural logic.
	

Central Asia in an Era of Change
	Stanislav Chernyavsky 94
Central Asia has been recently described, despite its myriad problems, as a
region of political stability. Experts believed that the Central Asian
governments would ensure a relatively calm development inside their
countries for at least five to seven years. However, given the developments
in the post-Soviet space in the last two years, the analysts have been
forced to amend their forecasts.
	
Russia and Belarus: Between Wishing and Reality
	Leonid Zaiko 108
Officials from Russia and Belarus make flamboyant claims about the alleged
success of ongoing "close" integration between the two countries. However,
the year 2005 vividly demonstrated that, in reality the economies have been
diverging, thus causing Belarus to noticeably depart from Russia.
	

 

RUSSIA ON THE WORLD SCENE

Russian Hydrocarbons and World Markets
	Alexander Arhatov, Maria Belova, Vladimir Feygin 118

Russia's standing in the world is in great part contingent on its rich
mineral resources. Successful participation in the international division of
labor presupposes effective use of this advantage, although it should not be
confined to this.
	
Russia and the U.S. in Need of Trust and Cooperation
	Yevgeny Primakov132

Naturally, the Russian Federation cannot be compared with the Soviet Union,
which played a much more significant role in world politics. But there are
shortsighted politicians in the U.S. who have excluded Russia from the list
of great powers and underestimate the dynamics of its development.
	
The Specter of Capital Punishment in Russia
	Mikhail Margelov 140

There seem to be no good reasons for maintaining the death penalty. After
all, a good life is not born of fear and no conscientious scholar would
claim that a reduction in crime is directly related to the executor's
activity.

WORLD ORDER

Iran Seeking Superpower Status
	Vladimir Sazhin 150

Persistence of the followers of Imam Khomeini transforms Iran gradually into
a Shiite Persian empire. Paradoxically, the Islamic revolutionaries, who
overthrew the Shah and abrogated all the institutions of monarchy, are
acting out the Shah's dream of making Iran a regional superpower, the center
of a great civilization, which Mohammed Reza Pahlavi wrote about.
	

 Two Faces of Globalization: Europeanization Ks Americanization
	Vladislav Inozemtsev 163

We all are entering a new era in which the Europeans may peacefully live in
their united Europe, and the Americans may build their beloved America
according to their own projects. But this will be possible only if America
and Europe let the rest of the world follow the path of genuine
globalization, that is, let each nation and people follow its own course.
	
Reconstruction, Development and Sustainable Peace
	Mica Panic 176

There was great hope during the brief euphoria in 1989/90 that the end of
the Cold War would herald the beginning of a new era of widely enjoyed
improvements in economic welfare, prosperity and peace achieved through
greater harmony of interests and cooperation within and between countries.
Regrettably, though not surprisingly, it is the skeptics who have turned out
to be right.
	
PERSONAGE

Michael Walzer: "Any Ruler Can Be Brought to the Law"
	194

The trial of Hussein who claimed to be a ruler, who could do essentially
anything and whose rule was arbitrary, was to bring him to the law, before
the court, but to respect all of the civilized procedural rales.