Yes,
Cycling from Subiaco to the JHC. 70km round trip.
PB
-----Original Message-----
From: Accident and Emergency Academic List
[mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Andrew Webster
Sent: Tuesday, 28 February 2006 4:14 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: SAH
If we are looking at the best situation of a CT done within 12 hours and
the CT is 98% sensitive then maybe 1:1000 risk is acceptable.
If the test though is only 95% sensitive....then the risk would be 1 in 333
But if for example we are relying on non neuroradiologists or even
radiology registrars and their sensitivity is only 90%. Then the
likelihood ratio is only 0.1 and the post test probability is 1 in 20.
Best case scenarios CT at less than 12 hours then 1:1000 should be a
fair enough risk. What the experts would argue for the rest of us, if we
missed a case that we were not working in the best case and our risk is
much higher. The real truth probably lies in between 1 in 20 to 1in 1000.
Paul I presume you were cycling along the coast to Joondaloop from
Perth. Lovely ride which I did last November before coming home. The
thought of doing it cycling 35 Km in 35 degrees......hope you have good
showers in your department. Though much better cycling in the wind and
rain between traffic over here.
Andy Webster
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