What is 'safe' is of course not open to scientific analysis. It is
essentially a political decision. What is safe for people on top of a
hill will not be safe for those in a flood plain, what is safe for
someone in New York will not be safe for an Innuit etc.
It also depends on your attitude to risk. The science is so uncertain
that we cannot tell how close we are to any tipping points which might
lead to irreversible, and/or severe consequences. We may well have
passed some already.
Now some people, and some cultures eg American, are more risk tolerant
than others, so will answer the question of what is dangerous climate
change differently. But a nice analogy is one in Athanasiou and Baer's
book Dead Heat - if you got on a plane about to fly to America and the
pilot said the fuel gauge was broken so we weren't sure to make it and
might have to ditch in the Atlantic would you still fly?
Chris Keene
Chris wrote:
> Hi Chris
>
> I assume this is a plea for business as usual, dressed up as a
> meaningful response. I personally do not believe that that form of
> knowledge known as science is capable of defining the activities which
> will lead to a 'safe' level of climate change, and any attempt to do
> so is a capitulation to the idea that economic growth is the primary
> reason for human existence.
>
> Further, I would have thought such a debate, the consequences of which
> will affect every individual on the planet, ought to be something that
> the whole of humanity is involved in, rather than the decision being
> left to a tiny western elite.
>
> regards
>
> Chris Shaw
>
>
> ----- Original Message ----- From: "Chris Church"
> <[log in to unmask]>
> To: <[log in to unmask]>
> Sent: Monday, January 30, 2006 1:35 PM
> Subject: HOW MUCH CLIMATE CHANGE CAN WE TAKE? - DEFRA LAUNCHES NEW BOOK
>
>
> This is the news release about the book which has led to the current
> flurry
> of interest...
>
> 30/01/2006 12:48 Department for Environment, Food And Rural Affairs
> (National)
> HOW MUCH CLIMATE CHANGE CAN WE TAKE? - DEFRA LAUNCHES NEW BOOK
>
> Over the last year we have seen growing evidence of climate change.
> Indeed,
> statistics suggest that 2005 is the second warmest year on record. The
> Arctic sea ice shrank to its lowest extent last summer and devastating
> hurricanes show how sensitive even developed societies are to extreme
> weather.
>
> Temperatures are expected to continue to rise and extreme events are
> likely
> to become more frequent with climate change. But how much climate
> change can
> we take? How can we avoid levels which can be considered dangerous? The
> "Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change" book, which is being launched
> today by
> Defra, explores these questions.
>
> The book gives an account of the most recent developments on the
> science of
> climate change, explores how much climate change is too much and how
> can we
> avoid it. It examines the consequences of different levels of climate
> change
> in terms of impacts for different sectors and regions, as well as the
> world
> as a whole. And it considers technological options that can be
> deployed to
> achieve different levels of climate change as the world moves to a lower
> carbon economy.
>
> The book builds on the scientific findings presented at the "Avoiding
> Dangerous Climate Change" conference, which took place at the Met Office,
> Exeter in February 2005 at the start of the UK's G8 Presidency.
>
> Prime Minister Tony Blair said the Exeter conference provided a
> scientific
> backdrop to the whole of the UK's G8 Presidency and the Summit at
> Gleneagles.
>
> Writing in the foreword of the book, Mr Blair said: "At the Gleneagles
> meeting the leaders of the G8 were able to agree on the importance of
> climate change, that human activity does contribute to it and that
> greenhouse gas emissions need to slow, peak and reverse. All G8 countries
> agreed on the need to make substantial cuts in emissions and to act with
> resolve and urgency now.
>
> "This book will serve as more than a record of another conference or
> event.
> It will provide an invaluable resource for all people wishing to enhance
> global understanding of the science of climate change and the need for
> humanity to act to tackle the problem."
>
> Environment Secretary Margaret Beckett said: "I am very pleased that the
> book has been prepared in such a short time following the ground-breaking
> conference on Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change.
>
> "The conference provided an important scientific context for our G8
> sessions
> last year and illustrates very clearly the urgency with which the
> world has
> to tackle climate change."
>
> Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, chief editor of the book, said: "We
> hope that this book will make a significant contribution to the
> scientific
> and policy debate on what constitutes dangerous climate change."
>
> Notes to Editors:
>
> 1 The book, "Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change" has been prepared by an
> editorial board, led by Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, and is
> published by Cambridge University Press, price £70. More details are
> available at http://www.cambridge.org/0521864712 A pdf of the book
> will be
> available later today on the Defra website.
>
> 2 A document to go with the "Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change Book" has
> today been released by Defra. It contains a foreword by Dennis Tirpak,
> chair
> of the conference international scientific steering committee and an
> executive summary of book. It can be found on the Defra website at
> http://www.defra.gov.uk/corporate/publications/pubcat/env.htm#climate
>
> 3 The book is being launched tonight at a reception at the Royal Society,
> where speakers will include David Vaughan, British Antarctica Survey;
> Carol
> Turley, Plymouth Marine Laboratory; Rachel Warren, University of East
> Anglia
> and Terry Barker, University of Cambridge.
>
> 4 The International Symposium on Stabilisation of Greenhouse Gas
> Concentrations - Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change - took place at the
> invitation of the British Prime Minister Tony Blair under the
> sponsorship of
> Defra at the Met Office, Exeter on February 1-3, 2005. Information on the
> conference is available at http://www.stabilisation2005.com
>
> 5 Follow-up events to the Conference were held at the meeting of the
> Subsidiary Bodies of the United Nations Conference on Climate Change
> (UNFCCC) in June and at the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC in
> Montreal in December.
>
> 6 The book will provide input into the UNFCCC's Fourth Assessment Report,
> which will be launched in 2008.
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