Dear Colleagues,
I would like to draw your attention to the EGU General Assembly to be
held in Wien, Austria, 15 - 29 April 2007 and particularly to the
following session focused on flood risk topics:
NH2.03 Uncertainty and non stationarity in flood risk predictions
(co-listed in HS)
Convener: Aronica, G.
Co-Convener: Apel, H.; Bates, P.
Event Information
Predicting current and future flood risk continues to be a major
challenge for climatologists, hydrologists and hydraulicians. Flood risk
predictions are thus characterised by considerable uncertainty, which
needs to be evaluated and clearly communicated to decision-makers.
Whilst we have a good qualitative understanding of the factors, such as
climatic changes, land use effects and human interference in river
channels and on flood plains, which lead to changes in flood frequency
and flood risk, there is a clear requirement for further quantitative
studies. The non-stationary nature of flood risk also challenges
established risk assessment methodologies and their modelling
components, such as extreme value statistics and hydraulic simulation.
This session aims to review state-of-the-art flood risk assessment
methodologies on different scales and experiences of recent flood events
through studies that have looked at changing flood risk in terms of
changes in process drivers, the physical processes occurring during
flood flows and uncertainties in measurement data and modelling. We
welcome submissions in the areas of changing flood frequency and risk,
flood hydraulics, flood modelling, flood plain risk assessment and
uncertainty analysis, and floodplain management including new approaches
to hydraulic and hydrologic modelling, model calibration and validation.
Further, we are interested in contributions that show what kind of
information is particularly helpful for reducing uncertainty, as well as
measures for flood mitigation and the cost effectivity of these
measures. Since flood risk analyses have to include statements on
extreme events, observation data are scarce. Therefore, we particularly
invite contributions that address the issue of validation of flood risk
analyses.
If you are interested and you are working on these topics we'll be glad
to receive your abstracts by the deadline of 15th January.
We are looking forward to seeing you in Wien next year.
Sincerely yours
Giuseppe Aronica
Heiko Apel
Paul Bates
More information at the address:
http://meetings.copernicus.org/egu2007/
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Prof.Ing. Giuseppe Aronica
Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile
Universita' di Messina
Via Nuova Panoramica dello Stretto
98166 S. Agata - Messina
ITALY
Tel. ++39-090-3977164
Fax. ++39-090-3977480
E-mail : [log in to unmask]
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