Please see message from Dave Petley - [log in to unmask] please
respond to him directly with your thoughts re: this excellent project
(my humble opinion).
Thanks
El
Dear All,
You may remember that in February I sent an email to this list providing
a link to a page that I put together about the geotechnical problems in
Kashmir, Pakistan after the 8th October 2005 earthquake. I received
some excellent feedback about this. In the wake of this we received
funding from NERC (UK Research Council) for a project to install a
network of extensometers on four potential failures in this area. As a
result, I have recently returned from Kashmir (and two researchers, Dr
Nick Rosser and Dr Stuart Dunning are currently there installing the
instruments). During our work there it has become apparent that the
slope stability issues in Kashmir are much more During our work there
it has become apparent that the slope stability issues in Kashmir are
much more serious than we had realised.
I have put together a web page highlighting just some of the issues, and
providing some pictures of the truly remarkable incipient slope failures
in this area. I hope that it is of interest to you. The web page is
at:
http://www.landslidecentre.org/kashmir2.htm
I hope you will see that, with the monsoon due in mid July, there are
some genuinely worrying problems in that area. I worked with the
Geological Survey of Pakistan (who have compiled a hazard map for
Muzaffarabad) and the authorities in Kashmir to identify the threats
around Muzaffarabad, but to date we have only been able to cover a small
part of the total area. Unfortunately there is no aerial photography
available at present. No systematic stability analysis or ground
investigation has been conducted on these slopes. As a result of these
initial studies, there are plans to evacuate 50,000 - 55,000 people from
the affected areas in Muzaffarabad before the monsoon:
Pakistan Times story
MUZAFFARABAD (AJK): Almost 55,000 earthquake survivors will be relocated
due to the danger posed by monsoon landslides in Azad Kashmir, officials
said on Saturday. "A strategy is being evolved to relocate some 50 to 55
thousand people from areas prone to landslides before the start of
monsoon season," the region's top administrator Kashif Murtaza said.
Murtaza said that 18 villages were likely to be affected. The government
would work with the United Nations and other aid agencies get the people
out of harm's way, he said. "It is a big challenge to relocate the most
vulnerable to safer places before the monsoon starts," Murtaza said.
Depending on how many people need to be resettled the government may
have to buy land near Muzaffarabad, the capital of Azad Kashmir, he
added.
This is a remarkable, and highly commendable, response. However, it is
clear that for understandable the authorities are struggling to deal
with the scale of the threats, in particular in hitherto unmapped areas.
Hence, the point of this email is first to invite you to take a look at
the website, which I hope you feel is interesting and informative. Do
feel free to use the contents in lectures or presentations, although
note that I wish to retain copyright. I would be delighted if you could
send comments or feedback on the landslide problems there. Please take
a look in particular at Images 4, 5, 12 and 13. I would welcome
thoughts on how likely it is that slopes in this state will fail in the
monsoon, when we expect 650 mm rainfall in 6 weeks based on average
amounts. Incidentally there has been no heavy rainfall since the
earthquake.
Second, it is to ask whether anyone has any thoughts on the ways that we
as a geotechnical community can support the Pakistani authorities in the
management of these threats ahead of the monsoon in six weeks time. It
is my feeling that this represents probably the greatest geotechnical
threat worldwide at present. My group are installing extensometers and
mapping some slopes with laser scanning, but this will only cover four
of the most serious slope threats
Please do drop me a line.
Warm regards
Dave Petley
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David Petley
Wilson Professor of Hazard and Risk
International Landslide Centre
Department of Geography, University of Durham
Durham DH1 3LE
Tel: +44 191 334 1909 Fax: +44 191 334 1801
Email: [log in to unmask]
http://www.landslidecentre.org
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Dr Eleanor Parker
Senior Lecturer & UG Programme Manager
Coventry Centre for Disaster Management
Coventry University
tel +44 (0)24 7688 8410/8330 (reception/direct)
fax +44 (0)24 7688 8257
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