There is an interesting paper on this subject in the latest issue of the
journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.
(ref) N Floret et al, 'Negligible Risk for Epidemics after Geophysical
Disasters'. Emerging Infectious Diseases vol12 no4 (April 2006) 543-548
(URL) http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no04/05-1569.htm
(abstract) After geophysical disasters (i.e., earthquakes, volcanic
eruptions, tsunamis), media reports almost always stress the risk for
epidemics; whether this risk is genuine has been debated. We analyzed the
medical literature and data from humanitarian agencies and the World
Health Organization from 1985 to 2004. Of >600 geophysical disasters
recorded, we found only 3 reported outbreaks related to these disasters: 1
of measles after the eruption of Pinatubo in Philippines, 1 of
coccidioidomycosis after an earthquake in California, and 1 of Plasmodium
vivax malaria in Costa Rica related to an earthquake and heavy rainfall.
Even though the humanitarian response may play a role in preventing
epidemics, our results lend support to the epidemiologic evidence that
short-term risk for epidemics after a geophysical disaster is very low.
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