Dear allstaters,
Those of you that are interested in football in addition to statistics
may have a look at the web-page
http://vm.nr.no
containing winner probabilities for each team during the FIFA World Cup
in Germany. The probabilities will be updated daily during the
tournament. The probabilities are based on a Poisson model. The model is
estimated by maximizing a penalized and robustified Poisson-likelihood,
based on expert opinions before the tournament starts and the match
results during the tournament.
Best regards,
Magne Aldrin email: [log in to unmask]
Chief Research Scientist tel +47 22 85 25 00
Norwegian Computing Center fax +47 22 69 76 60
P.O. Box 114 Blindern WWW: http://www.nr.no/~aldrin/
N-0314 Oslo
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