Dear All,
The next meeting of the South Wales local group will be on Wednesday 29th March at 5pm at the Mathematics Building (Room M/0:40), Senghennydd Road , Cardiff. Tea will be served from 4.30pm in Room M/1:04.
Speakers: Hasan Al-Madfai (Glamorgan University) and Ray Thomas (Open University)
Title: Denominators and ILO Unemployment
Abstract
Unemployment, usually measured using the Labour Force /Annual Population Survey (LFS/APS) or claimant unemployment records, can be seen as a lagged proxy of economic output. But unemployment rates are used in formulating economic and social policies, for inter-country comparisons of economic activity and for societal planning. Therefore, it is vital that unemployment is measured consistently and robustly in order for these applications to be meaningful. The conventional unemployment rate uses the economically active population as a denominator, while long-term unemployment rates use total unemployment as the denominator. Neither of these rates take into account inheritance of variability and so both misrepresent movements in unemployment. Conventional rates have fostered government policies based on denominator-induced dynamics that are contradicted both by labour market theory and labour market behaviour. Conventional rates present long-term unemployment as a lagged variable. But time series and cross-sectional analysis of claimant unemployment provide evidence that long-term unemployment, often associated with structural and demand deficiency situations, is more responsive to the labour market conditions than short-term unemployment. Such analysis also shows that variability in unemployment levels largely reflects variation in entry into unemployment. These failures to acknowledge the influence of inheritance can be attributed to the failure of ILO criteria to recognize the concept of entry to unemployment. The maintenance of integrity in National Statistics requires that the LFS/APS questionnaire is modified so that it records entry to unemployment.
All welcome.
Rebecca Cannings-John
Statistician
Department of General Practice
Centre for Health Sciences Research
Cardiff University
3rd Floor, Neuadd Meirionnydd
Heath Park
Cardiff CF14 4YS
Tel: 029 2068 7150
Fax: 029 2068 7219
www.uwcm.ac.uk/study/medicine/general_practice
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