Reminder...
UNIVERSITY OF HERTFORDSHIRE STATISTICS SEMINAR SERIES
Part of the Business School Research Seminar Programme
www.herts.ac.uk/business/staff_public/nhspencer_public/seminars
Supported by Department of Management Systems,
Business School, University of Hertfordshire.
Wednesday 11th January 2006, 2pm, room M133, de Havilland campus
David Jarrett (Middlesex University Business School)
Title: "Road crashes and statistics: how can we evaluate the effectiveness of safety measures?"
Abstract:
"The number of road accident casualties in Great Britain has been declining in recent years but remains a serious problem. In 2004 there were over 3,200 deaths and about 31,000 serious injuries on the roads, and the total cost of road accidents to society was estimated to be £18 billion. This talk will begin by providing some background to these figures. It will outline how road accidents are recorded and the resulting data made available to researchers, and show comparisons of accident rates over time, between different modes of transport, and between different countries.
The main aim, however, will be to discuss the statistical problems that arise when evaluating the effects of intended safety measures such as the introduction of mini-roundabouts, new road markings, or speed cameras. Accident counts at a site vary randomly and are usually modelled by the Poisson distribution, so methods based on this distribution can be applied. However, safety measures are usually introduced only at sites that have experienced a large number of accidents in the past. This means that any subsequent reduction in accidents may just be the result of regression towards the mean. The regression effect will be explained, and it will be shown how empirical Bayes methods can be used to estimate its size. The talk will conclude with mention of some more complex statistical models for road accidents and a discussion of the difficulties that can arise when applying these in practice."
For further information regarding location, parking, etc.,
please contact Neil Spencer (details below).
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Dr Neil H. Spencer
Principal Lecturer in Statistics
Director of Statistical Services and Consultancy Unit
Business School, University of Hertfordshire,
de Havilland Campus, Hatfield,
Hertfordshire, AL10 9AB, U.K.
Statistical Services and Consultancy Unit Contact Details:
Telephone: +44 (0) 1707 285574; Fax: +44 (0) 1707 285410
E-mail: [log in to unmask]
WWW: http://www.herts.ac.uk/business/centres/sscu
Personal Contact Details:
Telephone: +44 (0) 1707 285529; Fax: +44 (0) 1707 285410
E-mail: [log in to unmask]
WWW: http://www.herts.ac.uk/business/staff_public/nhspencer_public
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