Modelling of Hepatitis C Epidemic and intravenous drug use
2nd March 2006 16:00 - 18:00
RSS, 12 Errol St, London EC1Y 8LX
PLEASE NOTE CHANGE OF DATE FOR THIS MEETING Pre-registration is
recommended. You can register by email: [log in to unmask] or by phone
(020) 7638 8998.
Projecting the late liver sequelae of Hepatitis C infection in
Scotlands injecting drug users
SHARON HUTCHINSON (Health Protection Scotland), SHEILA BIRD (MRC
Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge), DAVID GOLDBERG (Health Protection Scotland)
Projections required information on Scotlands injector epidemic, the
transmissibility of hepatitis C (HCV), prognostic influences (and
biases) on the rate of progression to HCV related late liver disease,
the toll that other causes of death exact on current and former
injectors, and database linkage studies even to establish how many HCV
infectees had progressed to late liver sequelae (and thereby calibrate
projections). Empirical and database linkage studies by which to
corroborate, or challenge, projections to 2010 are outlined.
Estimating prevalence of Hepatitis C virus infection in the general
population in England
DANIELA DE ANGELIS (MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge)
There is lack of agreement between currently available estimates of the
number of HCV infected individuals in the general population in England.
The problem is that conclusive studies of HCV prevalence are not
available. What is available is a number of studies typically carried
out in very specific populations made up of a mixture of groups at
differing levels of risk for HCV infection. Any estimate derived by
naively combining the size of these populations with the corresponding
HCV prevalence is subject to bias. We explore a Bayesian approach that
synthesizes evidence on HCV prevalence from these multiple studies, data
on the size of each population and information on the nature of
potential biases.
Meeting Contact: Chris Robertson ([log in to unmask])
Organising Group(s): Medical Section
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