Royal Statistical Society
Meeting of the Social Statistics Section
Offending and reconviction: where are we heading?
This event will illustrate how statistical techniques are being applied to
administrative data in order to answer pressing policy questions. The
presentations aim to give an insight into how new datasources are supporting
developments in measuring offending and reconviction and to explain how we
estimate future prison populations. Three areas will be presented:
Projecting the prison population
Prison population projections help manage demand for prison places. Prison
population fluctuates significantly due to predictable factors (e.g.,
seasonality) and uncontrollable environmental factors (e.g., sentencer
behaviour). The modelling draws on a simulation model of the complex
criminal justice system, a long-term prison population model based on a
theory of re-offending, a detailed flow model based on receptions and
discharges from prison, and an overarching analytical exercise that
addresses underlying assumptions and scenarios, the analysis of historical
trends and new legislation.
Developments in measuring reconvictions
A subset of the Police National Computer (PNC) is being used to improve the
ways re-offending and criminal histories are measured. The presentation will
focus on the advantages and disadvantages of the PNC and will talk through a
few of the analytical techniques currently being used including the
measurement of the public sector agreement on re-offending.
Estimating Active Offenders
One of the applications of PNC data is the development of a model which
seeks to estimate the total number of offenders and offences in England and
Wales at a specified point in time. It segments offences by offence type and
offenders by age and gender, and it estimates the numbers of serious and
prolific offenders. The estimation is underpinned by a statistical model
which takes as its key inputs, historic convictions and the Offending, Crime
and Justice Survey.
Speakers: Paul Cowell, Lucy Cuppleditch and Adrian Shepherd (Research
Development and Statistics - National Offender Management Service, Home
Office), Vincent Chinegwundoh and Martin Kelly (Economics and Resource
Analysis, Home Office)
Discussant: Brian Francis, University of Lancaster
Date & Time: Tuesday 30th January 2007, 5:00 PM (Tea from 4:30)
Place: RSS, 12 Errol Street, London EC1Y 8LX
Admission: The meeting is open to all and free of charge but
pre-registration is recommended - please email [log in to unmask] or tel.
020 7638 8998 to register. For more information about the meeting please
contact [log in to unmask] or the meetings secretary
[log in to unmask] / Tel: 020 7273 8010
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